The Miami Heat (38-34) battle the Detroit Pistons (16-55) Sunday with tip from Little Caesars Arena set for 6 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Heat vs. Pistons odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Heat lost to Detroit 116-96 on Dec. 6 as Miami failed to cover as a 7.5-point home favorite. The Under 220.5 hit.
The Heat lost to the Chicago Bulls 113-99 Saturday, failing to cover as a 2-point road favorite. They are just 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last 7 games, but 4-3 straight up. Miami is 26-44-2 ATS on the season.
The Pistons lost to the Denver Nuggets 119-100 Thursday as a 15-point home underdog. Detroit is just 2-6 ATS and just 1-7 straight up in its last 8 games. It is 30-38-3 ATS on the season as well.
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Heat at Pistons odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:53 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Pistons +425 (bet $100 to win $425)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat -9.5 (-110) | Pistons +9.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Heat at Pistons key injuries
Heat
- Not yet submitted
Pistons
- F Bojan Bogdanovic (Achilles) out
- C Isaiah Stewart (shoulder) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Heat at Pistons picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 113, Pistons 105
Moneyline
AVOID.
The Pistons don’t seem interested in winning games, but the Heat have had notable struggles lately as well. Miami shouldn’t be a road (-550) favorite given how it has played, but Detroit is also unplayable on the moneyline here.
Against the spread
BET PISTONS +9.5 (-110).
The Pistons are 2-3 ATS in their last 5 home games and just 15-20-1 ATS on the season at home. While that doesn’t sound great, Miami is just 13-20-1 ATS on the road.
To make matters even worse, Miami is just 6-11-1, a 35.3% cover rate, as a road favorite. This is not a position the Heat have performed well in, and they are coming off a 14-point road loss as a favorite. The Heat are 1-5 ATS over their last 6 road matches as well.
The Pistons have scored 115 or more in 3 of their last 6, so while their 2 top scorers are out, they have been able to manage offensively. Against Miami, that will be important.
That said, the Heat shouldn’t be double-digit road favorites against any other team in the NBA, so back the PISTONS +9.5 (-110).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 220.5 (-110).
The Pistons have gone Under in 6 of their last 8 games and in 3 straight games, scoring 100 or fewer in 2 straight.
The Heat have gone Under in 2 of their last 6. They will be on the 2nd night of a back-to-back and are 5-6 O/U with no rest. Miami is also just 5-13 O/U as a road favorite as well.
Considering both trends, back the UNDER 220.5 (-110).
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