The Louisville Cardinals (2-11) battle the No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats (8-4) at Rupp Arena Saturday. Tip is set for noon ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Louisville vs. Kentucky odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
The Wildcats lost 89-75 to the Missouri Tigers as 3-point road favorites Wednesday. Kentucky has failed to cover 6 games in a row with 3 of those coming as double-digit favorites. The Cats’ strength is shooting from deep — they rank 14th nationally in 3-point field goal percentage (39.5%).
The Cardinals lost 76-64 to NC State on Dec. 22, covering as 18-point road underdogs. Louisville is just 2-11 against the spread (ATS). However, it’s covered 2 of their last 4 games as books have started to realize how bad this team is. The Cardinals rank 347th in field goal percentage (40.1%) and 329th in opponents’ field goal percentage (46.4%).
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Louisville at Kentucky odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:43 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Louisville +1100 (bet $100 to win $1,100) | Kentucky -5000 (bet $5,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Louisville +23.5 (-110) | Kentucky -23.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 137.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Louisville at Kentucky picks and predictions
Prediction
Kentucky 76, Louisville 58
Moneyline
PASS.
Louisville is 2-11 this season and 0-2 in true road games. I expect the Cardinals to cover in this rivalry game, but I don’t think they will win outright. Kentucky (-5000) is certainly a pass as it is 1-2 straight up over its last 3 and you’d need to risk 50 times your potential return to bet it.
Against the spread
BET LOUISVILLE +23.5 (-110).
The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS over their last 6 and are just 4-8 ATS on the season. Kentucky is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games it was favored by 15 or more points. Sharpshooter G CJ Fredrick is expected to be out with a dislocated finger which could hurt the Cats’ offense as well.
Louisville is 2-2 ATS over its last 4 after failing to cover its first 9 games. This rivalry should be different, and the energy from the Cards should help them keep this game within 23.5.
The last 3 meetings between these sides were all decided by 13 or fewer points. Back LOUISVILLE +23.5 (-110).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 137.5 (-110).
The Cards’ offense just is not good, and that will be a problem here. They are 2-10-1 O/U, and their efficiency on the offensive end where they are averaging just 61.4 points per game will be exposed by the presence of lengthy Kentucky defenders like F Jacob Toppin. The Cards have scored 62 or fewer points in 6 of their last 9 games.
The Cats are just 6-6 O/U and will likely be without a key shooter. They average 78.4 points per game but have topped 75 in just 1 of their last 6 outings.
Back the UNDER 137.5 (-110).
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