The No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs (9-0, 6-0 Big 12) meet the No. 18 Texas Longhorns (6-3, 4-2) Saturday at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the TCU vs. Texas odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
The Horned Frogs — ranked 4th in the latest College Football Playoff rankings — posted a 34-24 win over Texas Tech last Saturday. TCU has covered 3 in a row, and it has a stellar 7-1-1 ATS overall this season. The Over is 6-2 in the last 8 games for the Horned Frogs, too.
The Longhorns sit at No. 18 in the CFP rankings after an impressive 34-27 win at Kansas State last week. It has 3 losses overall, but Texas has lost just 2 in regulation, and the average margin of defeat in the 3 setbacks is just 3.7 points per game.
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TCU at Texas odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:17 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): TCU +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Texas -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
- Against the spread: TCU +7 (-109) | Texas -7 (-111)
- Over/Under (O/U): 64.5 (O: -113 | U: -107)
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TCU at Texas picks and predictions
Prediction
TCU 38, Texas 35
Moneyline
TCU (+205) is an amazing value at this price.
The Horned Frogs have it all on the table in front of them, as they simply need to keep winning to remain in contention for a CFP spot. As an unbeaten team in the Top 4, a chance to double up is too hard to pass up, even in a very hostile environment against a rival.
Against the spread
TCU +7 (-109) is a great play if you’re not feeling it straight up against Texas.
The Horned Frogs have won 6 of the past 8 meetings in this series, and it will have revenge on its mind after Texas topped TCU in Fort Worth last season by a 32-27 score. The stakes have never been higher for TCU in this series, and it’s hard to imagine Texas dropping TCU by more than 1 score, if at all.
Over/Under
OVER 64.5 (-113) is the lean here, although I like the moneyline and ATS markets much better.
While the Under is 5-2 in the previous 7 in this series, defensive play hasn’t exactly been a hallmark of either side this season.
The Over is 6-2 in the past 8 for TCU, while going 8-1 in its past 9 against teams with a winning overall record. The Over is 7-3 in the past 10 on the road for TCU, too.
The Under is 5-1 in the past 6 at home for Texas. However, it is posting a healthy 36.1 PPG to rank 23rd in the nation, and it allows 258.1 passing yards per game. TCU is strong in the pass game, and this is setting up as a good, old-fashioned high-scoring duel in the Lone Star State.
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