The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres continue their National League Championship Series Wednesday. First pitch in Game 2 at Petco Park is slated for 4:35 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Series: Phillies lead 1-0; won regular-season series 4-3
The Phillies swept the St. Louis Cardinals 2-0 in their Wild Card Series and beat the Atlanta Braves 3-1 in their Division Series to reach the NLCS for the first time since 2010. Now, after a masterfully pitched Game 1, Philadelphia is 6-1 this postseason. The Phils — who logged a 3.98 ERA in the regular season — have authored a 2.18 ERA over their 7 playoff games.
The Padres were also a wild card entrant into these October brackets and they have already defeated 212 wins worth of regular-season dominance in their series triumphs over the New York Mets (2-1) and Los Angeles Dodgers (3-1). San Diego had scored 4.20 RPG in its previous 5 games, but the Friars were held to just 1 hit in Tuesday’s series lid-lifter. RHP Zack Wheeler and 2 Phillies relievers combined to put the Padres to sleep.
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Phillies at Padres projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Blake Snell
Nola went 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 across 205 IP in 32 starts in the regular season.
- Had a 2.60 ERA, 0.90 WHIP in his last 5 starts of the regular season
- Has yielded just 1 unearned run in 13 2/3 IP over 2 playoff games this fall
- Allowed 1R on 7 hits and 2 BB (10K) in 7 IP at San Diego June 24
Snell made 24 regular-season starts, posting an 8-10 record with a 3.38 ERA. He logged a 1.20 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 in 128 IP.
- Has allowed 17 base runners but only 3R in 8 2/3 IP this postseason
- Owns a 4.91 ERA in 4 career starts against the Phillies (2021-22)
Phillies at Padres odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Padres -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-230) | Padres -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Padres 2
Moneyline
Figure the Padres as being slightly overrated by their performance in 1-run games (30-17 in the regular season) and by what their pitchers have done in the postseason. San Diego has pitched well (2.70 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), but it has also been the beneficiary of the Mets and Dodgers going a combined 9 of 57 (.158) with runners in scoring position.
The Philadelphia offense is at its best against left-handers and has gotten to Snell in past meetings.
BET PHILADELPHIA (+100).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS. There is too much juice and not enough leverage on the preferred Philly side.
Over/Under
The weather forecast calls for game temperatures in the high-80s. But an inward, pitcher’s-aid breeze is also in the forecast. Plus afternoon shadows could favor the men on the mound as well.
Nola and Snell profile as hurlers perhaps capable of even more than what shows in their surface lines. Both are backed by rested bullpens.
TAKE THE UNDER 6.5 (+105).
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