The Atlanta Braves (1-2) and Philadelphia Phillies (2-1) continue their NL Division Series at 2:07 p.m. ET (FS1) at Citizens Bank Park Saturday. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Best-of-5 series: Phillies lead 2-1
Regular-season series: Braves won 11-8
NL East-champion Atlanta was bludgeoned 9-1 Friday. A Braves pitching staff that logged a 3.48 ERA during the regular season has now had more than a couple missteps of late. Atlanta shut out Philadelphia in Game 2 of this series, but in the losses it has yielded 7 and 9 runs, respectively. Before that, on the last day of the regular season, the Braves coughed up 12 runs in a loss to the Miami Marlins (Oct. 5).
The Phils had a pair of home runs Friday and also went 4-for-7 with runners in scoring position. Philadelphia has now clubbed 21 home runs in its last 12 games on home turf. The Phils are 8-4 over those last dozen games at Citizens.
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Braves at Phillies projected starters
RHP Charlie Morton vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard
Morton (9-6, 4.34 ERA) authored a 1.23 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 172 IP across 31 regular-season starts.
- Owns a 2.51 ERA over his last 10 postseason starts
- Struggled down the stretch of the regular season: posted a 6.23 ERA over his last 5 starts. The worst of those 5 turns was when he allowed 6 ER in 4 2/3 IP in a road start against Philadelphia.
Syndergaard (10-10, 3.94 ERA) pitched in 25 games (24 starts) in the regular season. He logged a 1.25 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 134 2/3 IP. The veteran righty did not pitch in the Wild Card Series, but he did pitch a scoreless inning of relief in Game 2 of this series.
- Clocked a 4.55 ERA over his last 29 2/3 IP
- Posted a 3.47 ERA at home
- Has held current Atlanta bats to an aggregate .624 OPS
Braves at Phillies odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Braves -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+127) | Phillies +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -101)
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Braves at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Phillies 3
Moneyline
The Phillies getting healthy and able to have OF Kyle Schwarber and DH Bryce Harper — both lefty swingers — in the top 4 of their lineup was a big help against RHP Spencer Strider Friday, and it figures as a boon against Charlie Morton as well. Morton allowed a .771 OPS against lefty bats in the regular season; he has allowed a .762 mark against them for his career (.660 OPS allowed against right-handed batters).
The Phillies are a hard lean for the series, not so much of one at these prices in this game (would take the Phils at +110).
Run line/Against the spread
Same analysis as above, although with a likeable Under, Philadelphia bettors may want to consider a +1.5 wager if the tag drops below -160. Syndergaard isn’t the pitcher he was, and the Braves should get to him. Let’s take the BRAVES OVER 3.5 TOTAL RUNS (-180) for a HALF UNIT.
Over/Under
Morton has allowed a high rate of fly balls leaving the yard, and his expected season ERA is a good bit lower than his surface mark. Syndergaard has the nice history at home and against the Braves. The Phils right-hander owns a 2.33 ERA across 27 career IP in the postseason. But again, he’s not that type of pitcher anymore.
Throw in an undervalued Philadelphia relief corps and rested back ends for both bullpens, and the UNDER 8.5 (-101) is a very strong play.
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