The Miami Marlins (55-80) and Philadelphia Phillies (75-61) cap off a 3-game series Thursday with a 6:45 p.m. ET first pitch at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Philadelphia leads 10-5
The Marlins have dropped the first 2 games of this series and have lost 9 straight games overall. Miami owns a whiff-heavy .499 OPS over that stretch. The Fish are just 7-23 since Aug. 5.
The Phillies are 16-5 over their last 21 games at Citizens Bank Park. A club that has mostly struggled all season in 1-run games has won games this series by scores of 3-2 and 4-3.
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Marlins at Phillies projected starters
RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Kyle Gibson
Alcantara (12-7, 2.36 ERA) is lined up for his 28th start of the season. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 190 2/3 IP.
- ERA and WHIP figures are would-be career bests
- Has gone 7 or more innings in 3 straight starts against Philadelphia
- Has held current Phillies to an aggregate .704 OPS
- Owns a 3.96 ERA ERA in the 2nd half and has been a better 1st-half pitcher over his career (2.76 ERA 1st half vs. 3.74 ERA 2nd half)
Gibson (9-6, 4.48 ERA) owns a 1.25 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 140 2/3 IP across 26 starts.
- Allowed 7 runs in 1 2/3 IP in his last start (Friday at the San Francisco Giants), but has still registered a 3.92 ERA over his last 7 starts
- Current Miami bats own a high-contact .780 OPS against him
Marlins at Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:34 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Phillies -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)
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Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 4, Phillies 3
Money line
Gibson has faltered in 2 of his last 3 starts, and with Miami’s numbers against him, he is too risky at this price.
Look for Alcantara to rebound after two high-pitch count games which fed into his misstep last outing (6 R allowed in 5 IP against the Atlanta Braves Friday).
Recognizing the depths of the Miami slump, consider a partial-unit play on the MARLINS (+115).
Run line/Against the spread
Too much juice to overcome: PASS.
Over/Under
Indicators swing both ways, pointing to some leverage north and south of the 7-7.5-run range. With that kind of equilibrium, a PASS is recommended.
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