Boise State vs. New Mexico: Keys To A Broncos Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Broncos look to get back on track against the Lobos. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for in Boise State’s game against UNM.

Boise State vs. New Mexico: Keys To A Broncos Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

The Broncos look to get back on track against the Lobos. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for in Boise State’s game against UNM.

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The Land of Enchantment awaits.

WEEK 2: Boise State Broncos (0-1) vs. New Mexico Lobos (1-0)

WHEN: Friday, September 9 — 7:00 PM MT/6:00 PM PT

WHERE: University Stadium; Albuquerque, NM

WEATHER: Mostly cloudy, low of 64 degrees

TV: CBS Sports Network

STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes ESPNU, by following this link.

RADIO: The Boise State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Bronco Radio Network, including flagship 670 AM (KBOI) in Boise. The New Mexico radio broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Lobo Radio Network, including flagship 770 AM (KKOB) in Albuquerque.

SERIES RECORD: Boise State leads the all-time series, 11-1. In the last meeting on November 20, 2021, the Broncos defeated the Lobos, 37-0, in Boise.

LAST WEEK: Boise State lost on the road against Oregon State, 34-17, while New Mexico defeated Maine at home, 41-0.

WEBSITES: BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website | GoLobos.com, the official Auburn athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Boise State | New Mexico

ODDS: Boise State -17

SP+ PROJECTION: Boise State by 18.4

FEI PROJECTION: Boise State by 25.0

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Boise State 91.65% win probability (41.06-21.85)

Sometimes, the best thing after a bad game is a short week against a familiar opponent, especially one you have beaten by an average of 28 points in the last five games. The Boise State Broncos are looking to get back on track after being unable to recover from a terrible first half against Oregon State, dropping the game 34-17 in Corvallis. The New Mexico Lobos, on the other hand, were dominant in their opener against the Maine Black Bears, winning 41-0.

The biggest question coming into the game is who will start at quarterback for the Broncos. Hank Bachmeier started rough last week and was eventually pulled after committing three turnovers in his six drives. Taylen Green came in and moved the ball somewhat well, providing some big plays on the ground. He was responsible for both Bronco touchdowns thanks to runs of four and 74 yards. Even with defense being the strength of New Mexico’s team, the odds are that Bachmeier will get the nod.

Three Keys to a Boise State Victory

1. Show Up On Time

In recent years, the Broncos have routinely gotten off to slow starts. The offense tends to drag for their first few possessions, and the defense usually has to rely on halftime adjustments to slow opponents. New Mexico is an excellent opportunity to start fast. The Lobos defense is led by old foe Rocky Long and they have improved, but it still lacks the level of talent to stop the Broncos consistently, and their offense is likely to be one-dimensional when not facing an FCS opponent.

2. Mobile Quarterbacks Everywhere

The Broncos quarterback situation was mentioned earlier, so the focus here will be Lobos quarterback Miles Kendrick, transferred from Kansas and won the starting job for New Mexico. When these two teams played last year, New Mexico was down to a former equipment manager at quarterback and the results were exactly what you’d expect.

Kendrick had only four starts in his three years at Kansas, so he did not have much game experience under his belt. He was efficient last week, though, throwing for 170 yards with two touchdowns against Maine and adding another 40 yards and the ground. He was also picked off twice by the Black Bear defense, though, showing his lack of game experience. If Boise State can get to him early with pressure, they could force him into mistakes and take early control of the game.

3. Capitalize on Opportunities

The Broncos fumbled in the red zone and missed two field goals last week. Any team will struggle if you leave nine to 13 points on the table. In addition to the four other turnovers the Broncos committed, it was incredible that they were still within 10 points in the second half. Jonah Dalmas is a first-team all-Mountain West kicker and everyone is entitled to shanks now and then. With the way the whole game went, it seemed the entire team had Murphy’s law weighing on it.

If the Broncos have the same struggles this week, there is a chance the Lobos have improved enough to win this game. Although it is unlikely, it’s a theory that should not be tested.

Prediction

Last year the Broncos had bad games, but they never had two bad games in a row. The offensive line play is troubling, even more so than last year, and the complete breakdown of Bachmeier and George Holani being MIA is the most troublesome of all. The chances of the offense fixing all its issues right away are slim, so the Broncos going out and putting up 40 points, or even 30 points, seems like a stretch. I do think the defense shows up and can hold the Lobo offense relatively in check and will force some turnovers. The Broncos will come away with the win, but it may not be a pretty one.

Boise State 23, New Mexico 10

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