The SP+ win projection forecast is out for the 2022 college football season. ESPN’s SP+ model predicts that Georgia football will win 10.6 games, which is actually the most in the country. Alabama (10.5 wins) and Ohio State (10.4 wins) are the only other two teams projected to win over 10 games.
Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State have consistently been grouped as the top three teams in the country according to numerous preseason polls. The SP+ is no different.
Georgia additionally has the most projected SEC wins (6.8) of any team in the conference. SP+ predicts that the Bulldogs have a 57% chance of finishing the season zero or one losses. Again, no team in the NCAA has a higher chance of achieving this than the Bulldogs. Alabama (53%) and Ohio State (52%) are the only other teams with a greater than 50% chance of only losing zero or one games.
Where does the rest of the SEC stack up according to SP+?
- Vanderbilt: Projected wins 2.4, projected SEC wins 0.5
- Missouri: Projected wins 5.9, projected SEC wins 2.7
- South Carolina: Projected wins 6.2, projected SEC wins 3.3
- LSU: Projected wins 6.5, projected SEC wins 3.1
- Auburn: Projected wins 6.6, projected SEC wins 3.3
- Mississippi State: Projected wins 6.8, projected SEC wins 3.1
- Arkansas: Projected wins 7.0, projected SEC wins 4.1
- Florida: Projected wins 7.1, projected SEC wins 4.2
- Tennessee: Projected wins 8.0, projected SEC wins 4.5
- Texas A&M: Projected wins 8.0, projected SEC wins 4.5
- Kentucky: Projected wins 8.1, projected SEC wins 4.6
- Ole Miss: Projected wins 8.2, projected SEC wins 4.5
- Alabama: Projected wins 10.5, projected SEC wins 6.7
- Georgia: Projected wins 10.6, projected SEC wins 6.8
Overall, ahead of the 2022 SEC football season, there is a significant gap between the conference’s top two teams (Georgia and Alabama) and the rest of the league. The model respects the leagues as a whole and projects that 13 teams (sorry Vanderbilt fans) in the SEC have a greater than 60% chance of winning six games and securing bowl eligibility.
Who else, outside of Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State, does the model project to have a chance at making the College Football Playoff?
Notre Dame, Utah, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Michigan are the other Power Five teams that SP+ expects to win over nine games.
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