The Atlanta Braves (75-48) take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (47-74) Monday in the 1st game of a 3-game set at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Atlanta leads 4-0.
The surging Braves come into this one 8-2 in their last 10 after taking 2 of 3 from 1st-place teams in the Houston Astros and New York Mets. Atlanta sits 4 games out in the NL East and is hungry against a team it’s 4-0 against this year. The Braves outscored the Pirates 22-10 in their first series in June.
The Pirates limp in at 2-8 in their last 10 and just 9-21 in the last 30 games. The Cincinnati Reds just took 2 of 3 from them on their home field, and they were outscored 19-6 the last 2 days. The Pirates are just 7-15 against the NL East.
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Braves at Pirates projected starters
RHP Jake Odorizzi vs. RHP Roansy Contreras
Odorizzi (4-5, 4.15 ERA) makes his 16th start of the season. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 73 2/3 IP.
- He’s 0-2 with 5.93 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and 5.3 K/9 in 3 starts since being acquired by Atlanta
- Now 32, his 6.6 K/9 is the lowest of his career of any full season
Contreras (3-3, 4.02 ERA) makes his 11th start of the season. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 56 IP.
- Allowed 3 ER on 8 H and 1 BB with 7 K in 4 2/3 IP June 10 at Atlanta
- Doesn’t have much of a home-field advantage with a 4.10 ERA and 1.37 WHIP at home vs. 3.94 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road
Braves at Pirates odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:52 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Braves -205 (bet $205 to win $100) | Pirates +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (-120) | Pirates +1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Braves at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 6, Pirates 3
Money line
The Pirates aren’t going to score enough to contend with Atlanta. Contreras has a bright future, and unless he goes 6 scoreless innings and fans 10, the Pirates should lose this one handily. The Braves’ ML is too expensive, and I don’t trust Odorizzi to throw down on the first 5 innings. Let’s go with BRAVES OVER 4.5 TOTAL RUNS (-145).
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Run line/Against the spread
The Braves are fairly priced here, but the price could be steamed up closer to 1st pitch. Of their last 8 wins, 6 of them were by 2 or more runs. All 4 of their wins against Pittsburgh have been by 2 or more this year. Take the BRAVES -1.5 (-120).
Over/Under
Odorizzi hasn’t been good since his arrival, and his peripherals show he’s declining. That said, the Braves should score enough runs to get it done and tip the Over into the winner’s circle. Rain is in the forecast, though, which could throw a wrench into things. Keep an eye on that. The Over is 8-1-1 for the Bucs the last 10 games and 3-1-1 for the Braves over the last 5. Take the OVER 8.5 (-130).
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