The Philadelphia Phillies (63-50) wrap up their 3-game series at Citi Field Sunday with the New York Mets (74-40) with the 1st pitch scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
This is the rubber match as the Phillies won the series opener 2-1 in extra innings Friday. Then the Mets evened the series with a 1-0 victory Saturday.
Mets SP Jacob deGrom threw a 6-inning, 10-strikeout scoreless gem Saturday vs. Philly, allowing no walks and just 2 hits.
Season series: N.Y. leads 10-4 with a plus-22 run differential in those meetings (68-46).
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Phillies at Mets projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Chris Bassitt
Wheeler is 11-5 with a 2.63 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 126 2/3 IP over 21 starts.
- Last start: Win, 4-1, at home Tuesday vs. the Miami Marlins with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 8 K.
- 2022 vs. the Mets: 0-1 with a 1.69 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 6 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.
Bassitt is 9-7 with a 3.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 130 IP across 21 starts.
- Last start: Win, 5-1, Monday at home vs. the Cincinnati Reds with 8 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 8 H, 1 BB and 8 K.
- 2022 vs. the Phillies: 1-0 with a 1.54 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 7 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 11 K in 2 starts.
Phillies at Mets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Mets -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Mets 1
Money line
BET PHILLIES (+115) because Wheeler pitches better as the season winds down throughout his career, and he has been dominant recently.
August is Wheeler’s 2nd-best month by winning percentage (19-8), ERA (2.97) and WHIP (1.14). Also, Wheeler is 5-1 straight up (SU) with a 2.17 ERA over his last 7 starts, allowing 1 or 0 earned runs in 5 of those outings.
Wheeler might not be an NL Cy Young finalist, but he’s having an outstanding season. He grades in the 78th percentile or better in expected ERA over expected wOBA, hard-hit rate, K%, BB%, exit velocity and chase rate, per Statcast.
Finally, Philly is 6-4 SU with a plus-31.0% return on investment as road underdogs with Wheeler on the mound since he joined the Phillies in 2020.
BET the PHILLIES (+115).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Phillies +1.5 (-190) would be the play since they are 22-9 RL as road underdogs, but the Phillies are far too expensive.
Furthermore, the Mets -1.5 (+155) are 27-25 RL as home favorites and 10-4 RL vs. the Phillies this season.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-125) because Wheeler is a bona fide ace, Bassitt has looked good in his 1st 2 starts vs. the Phillies this year and Citi Field is 24th in park factor aka pitcher-friendly.
That said, these teams play more to the Over in most of their situational trends, and the Phillies-Mets have a combined 23-17 O/U record when these starters are on the hill.
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