The Philadelphia Phillies (38-35) wrap up their 4-game series with the San Diego Padres (45-29) at Petco Park with Sunday’s 1st pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Philly is 2-1 in this series and has outscored San Diego 10-5. The Phillies-Padres season series is tied 3-3, but Philly has a plus-3 run differential in those meetings.
The Phillies are 6-4 straight up (SU) over their last 10 games while the Padres are just 5-5 SU. The biggest news of this series is the Phillies lost OF Bryce Harper to a broken thumb after he was hit by a pitch Saturday night. He’s out indefinitely and figures to miss at least a month.
Phillies at Padres projected starters
RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Yu Darvish
Gibson is 4-3 with a 4.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 77 2/3 IP over 14 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 7-0, Tuesday at the Texas Rangers with 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 0 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 vs. the Padres: One start — a 2-0 home loss May 19 — with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 7 K.
Darvish is 7-3 with a 3.17 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 82 1/3 IP over 13 starts.
- Last start: Win, 4-1, Monday at home vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 vs. the Phillies: One start — a 2-0 win in Philly May 19 — with 7-scoreless IP, 6 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
Phillies at Padres odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Phillies +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-165) | Padres -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Phillies 2
Money line
RISK 1 unit on the PADRES (-165) instead of betting to win 1 unit because this is an expensive ML, and we are getting the worst of the number.
But, Darvish’s basic and advanced pitching numbers vs. Philly’s lineup are more impressive than Gibson’s vs. San Diego’s lineup. The Padres are 28-21 SU vs. righty starters while the Phillies are just 24-25 SU.
Also, the Padres are 4-1 SU as home favorites in Darvish’s starts with a plus-37.5% return on investment (ROI) and an average final score of 3.40-1.20.
Furthermore, San Diego’s bullpen ranks ahead of Philly’s in ERA (4.16-3.92), WHIP (1.40-1.07), xFIP (4.14-3.64) and K/BB rate (3.46-2.15), according to FanGraphs.
Finally, there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market, and the oddsmakers are reacting to the presumed sharp side. More than half of the action is on the Phillies, but nearly 90% of the cash bet is on the Padres, per VegasInsider.com. Since San Diego’s ML has been steamed from a -135 opener up to the current number, the Padres appear to be the sharp play.
If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the PADRES (-165) to earn a $60.61 profit instead of betting $165 to win $100.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
San Diego’s lineup produces less vs. right-handed pitching, and the Padres -1.5 (+133) are just 10-19 RL as home favorites whereas the Phillies +1.5 (-160) are 14-7 RL as road underdogs. Stick with San Diego’s ML.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-122).
San Diego is 0-5 O/U in Darvish’s 5 starts as a home favorite, Philly is 5-9 O/U in Gibson’s 14 starts, the Phillies-Padres are 1-5 O/U in their last 6 meetings and Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly venue in the MLB.
It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-122) since San Diego’s ML is my favorite look in this game.
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