The Philadelphia Phillies (36-34) open a 4-game series against the San Diego Padres (44-27) in the final stop of their 11-game road trip. First pitch for the opener Thursday is 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Padres lead the seasons series 2-1.
The Phillies, after winning the first 4 games of their road trip, have lost 3 straight. Even with the 3 straight losses, they are 15-5 in their last 20 games.
The Padres are coming off a 3-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks at home. They have won 7 of their last 10 games.
Phillies at Padres projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Suarez (5-4, 4.43 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 65 IP.
- Last start: Won 5-3 over the Washington Nationals June 17 with 3 R, 6 H, 3 BB and 5 K in 5 2/3 innings.
- Has 4-1 mark with a 3.86 ERA in 6 road starts.
Musgrove (8-0, 1.59 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 0.92 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 79 IP.
- Has picked up the win in his last 3 starts and the Padres are 11-1 when he starts.
- Has allowed no more than 2 ER in any start this season.
Phillies at Padres odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:16 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Phillies +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Padres -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-160) | Padres -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Phillies 2
Money line
Musgrove has been absolutely great this season, leading the league with a 1.59 ERA. The Padres have won 11 of his 12 starts.
The Phillies are 17-17 on the road this season but, despite the 3-game losing streak overall and on the road, they have won 7 of their last 10 on the road.
But Thursday’s result is based on the pitching matchup. Musgrove has been overwhelmingly good, while Suarez, while better on the road than at home, has been just okay.
Take the PADRES (-170), although the spread will be a better value for you this game.
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Run line/Against the spread
Of the 11 wins the Padres have with Musgrove on the mount, 9 have been by 2 or more runs. Thirteen of their last 15 victories have been by more than 1 run, so the question becomes whether you think the Padres will win outright or not. If you like the Phillies, take them on the money line.
Philly’s last 6 losses have been by more than 1 run.
But if you like the Padres to win outright, take them on the run line. Take PADRES -1.5 (+130).
Over/Under
The Phillies’ bats have gotten quite recently. They scored 7 total runs in their last 4 games combined.
The Padres, before scoring 10 on Wednesday in their series finale against Arizona, scored 4 or fewer runs in 5 straight games.
Take UNDER 7.5 (-120).
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