The Seattle Mariners (13-16) host the Philadelphia Phillies (12-16) Monday for the opener of their 3-game interleague series at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle snapped a 6-game losing skid and prevented a sweep in its 4-game series by beating the Tampa Bay Rays 2-1 in extra innings Sunday.
Philly is 2-5 overall in the last 7 games and has lost 3 straight series but split a doubleheader with the New York Mets Sunday.
Phillies at Mariners projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Chris Flexen
Suarez is 2-1 with a 4.63 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 over 23 1/3 IP across 4 starts.
- Got a loss in his last outing Tuesday vs. the Texas Rangers 6-4, throwing 5 IP with 3 ER (5 R), 6 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 3 K.
Flexen is 1-4 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 across 29 IP through 5 starts.
- Lost to the Houston Astros 4-0 Tuesday with 5 IP, 1 ER, 1 HR, 2 H, 3 BB and 2 K.
Phillies at Mariners odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:52 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Phillies +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Mariners -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-210) | Mariners -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Phillies at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Phillies 1
Money line
BET MARINERS (-120) because Flexen pitches better at home and Seattle’s lineup hits better at home. The Mariners are 1st in both wRC+ (147) and BB/K (0.62) at home, 3rd in wOBA (.354) and 9th in hard-hit rate (32.0%), per FanGraphs.
I can excuse Flexen’s 1-4 overall record because he has a 3.10 ERA even though 4 of his starts have been against elite ball clubs in the Houston Astros (twice), Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins.
On the other hand, the Phillies are just 3-7 overall on the road, 8-13 overall vs. right-handed starters and have worse advanced hitting numbers against righties.
The MARINERS (-120) money line is my favorite wager in this game.
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Run line/Against the spread
SPRINKLE on the MARINERS -1.5 (+170), if at all, because they could put this game out of reach vs. Philly’s weak bullpen, which ranks just 18th in xFIP, 25th in WHIP and 20th in hard-hit rate.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-110) because Philly’s lineup ranks 20th in wRC+ (94) and 22nd in hard-hit rate (31.0%) vs. right-handed pitching. Whereas Seattle’s lineup ranks 22nd in wRC+ (96) and 23rd in hard-hit rate (30.1%) against lefties.
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