The Miami Heat (8-5) travel to Paycom Center Monday to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (5-7). Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Heat at Thunder odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
The Thunder have come on strong of late and are 5-5 over their last 10 games. Led by star G Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, Oklahoma City has improved on both ends of the court and it’s playing .500 ball at Paycom — a positive for a youthful roster.
The Thunder get a tough test with the Heat, who have title aspirations, although there’s a chance G Jimmy Butler — who sat in the Heat’s victory over the Utah Jazz Saturday — again doesn’t play.
All eyes will be on third-year G Tyler Herro who has been annihilating teams if Butler is unable to suit up. Herro torched the Jazz with 27 points and is averaging 21.5 per game.
Heat at Thunder odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Heat -520 (bet $520 to win $100) | Thunder +370 (bet $100 to win $370)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat -8.5 (-122) | Thunder +8.5 (-102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Heat at Thunder key injuries
Heat
- C Bam Adebayo (knee) probable
- G Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
- G Victor Oladipo (knee) out
Thunder
- Not submitted yet but none expected that will affect gambling odds
Heat at Thunder odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 104, Thunder 98
Money line
PASS on the money line. No NBA regular-season game is worth a -520 price tag.
I really wouldn’t hate a small sprinkle on the Thunder money line as the Heat could be short-handed without Butler and OKC will be at home, but personally, I’d rather take the points.
Against the spread
BET on the THUNDER +8.5 (-102).
I would even consider altering it down to 7.5 for plus-money value as this should be a good matchup for a Thunder team that’s been much better at home. SGA, G Lu Dort and rookie Josh Giddey all have either length or grit.
They’ll be able to contain Herro and G Kyle Lowry. SGA’s 6-foot-11 wingspan should help him defend against the smaller Lowry and Herro.
The Thunder have the league’s fifth-worst net rating, but it’s actually a plus-5.3 over their last three games.
OKC is surging and starting to figure it out, and while Miami is the superior team, with Butler questionable, I’m taking this to at least be a competitive game, especially with how the Thunder are playing at home.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 210.5 (-110) as the better side of the total.
Both teams rank under 100 in pace (only nine teams top 100). They rank 17th (Miami) and 28th (OKC) in true shooting percentage, a stat that incorporates three-point shooting as well.
Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in threes made as well which typically coincides with how well a team can consistently score high amounts.
The Thunder have missed 100 points in three of their last five. Put it all together, and the Under feels like the better play. Given a total that’s on the lower side, I’d be hesitant to put too much on it.
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