The Miami Marlins (64-93) and New York Mets (75-82) play the third game of a four-game series Wednesday at Citi Field. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Marlins RHP Elieser Hernandez (1-3, 4.24 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 46 2/3 IP.
- Allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits (3 home runs) and 2 walks with 7 strikeouts over 4 innings against the Washington Nationals in his last start.
- Has benefited from a .279 BABIP and 85.1% LOB rate.
Mets RHP Taijuan Walker (7-11, 4.57 ERA) makes his 29th start and 30th appearance. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 151 2/3 IP.
- Has recorded a 7.74 ERA across 12 starts in the second half of the season, in stark contrast to his 2.66 first-half ERA.
- Allowed 19 earned runs and 8 home runs across his last 17 1/3 innings spanning four starts.
Marlins at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Mets -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Mets -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Prediction
Mets 5, Marlins 4
Money line (ML)
Miami is encountering significant issues hitting the ball that perhaps not even a matchup against Walker will fully solve. The Marlins are last in wRC+, wOBA and OPS in September, while the Mets are in the middle of the pack in these metrics.
The likely scenario of neither starting pitcher going deep into the game favors the Mets as well. The Marlins bullpen has been among the league’s worst in K-BB%, xFIP and SIERA over the last four weeks; Mets relievers, while not world-beaters, have logged much more respectable middle-of-the-pack numbers along that same span.
I retain some concerns about backing Walker and a team that has just three wins over their last 13 games too heavily, particularly with juice this high. However, the Marlins are an atrocious road team and the Mets, for all their second-half struggles, have one of the leagues’ better home records.
Take NEW YORK (-190).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
There is simply too much risk in backing Walker to hold the Marlins in check enough to back the Mets with any real faith on the run line. You could consider a value-based bet on the home side at plus money, but ultimately the safest move is to PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
Despite how poor Miami has been at the plate in September this number remains too low with these starting pitchers on the mound.
Hernandez has given up 3 or more earned runs in three of his last four starts and has yet to complete 6 innings in any start this season. Walker sees the Marlins for the fourth time this year, twice as a starter and once in relief, and while two of those appearances came during his blistering first half he still owns a subpar 4.96 ERA over 16 1/3 innings against them.
There should be ample opportunity for these clubs to produce 8 or more runs Wednesday. OVER 7.5 (-102) is my play.
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