The San Diego Padres (67-55) dropped the first two games of their series against the Colorado Rockies (54-66) and will try to avoid the sweep Wednesday. First pitch is set for 3:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Padres RHP Jake Arrieta (5-11, 6.88 ERA) makes his 21st start of the season, and first with San Diego. He has a 1.76 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 86 1/3 IP with the Chicago Cubs.
- Arrieta put up a 2.57 ERA across his first five starts of the season but has been absolutely brutal ever since. He has allowed 58 ER over 58 1/3 IP (8.95 ERA) over his last 15 starts and holds a 10.44 ERA and 3.1 HR/9 over his last 10 outings.
- Arrieta’s first start of August came with the Cubs at Coors Field, an outing in which he allowed 4 ER over 4 IP. He followed that up with a 4 IP, 8 ER performance against the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cubs released him after that outing.
Rockies RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez (3-6, 6.06 ERA) is expected to come off the COVID-19 list to make his 20th appearance (16th start). He has a 1.46 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 through 90 2/3 IP.
- Gonzalez has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park at home, with just 4 HR allowed through 43 2/3 IP. However, he has really struggled to miss bats in his home park, where he has recorded a 3.9 K/9 and 5.36 ERA.
- Gonzalez has faced the Padres twice this season, once at home and once on the road. In those starts he has surrendered 6 ER across 12 IP with 8 K, 2 BB, and 3 HR allowed.
Padres at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Rockies +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-102) | Rockies +1.5 (-122)
- Over/Under: 13.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Rockies 8, Padres 7
Money line (ML)
The Cubs lost 10 of their last 11 games Arrieta started before they released him. It’s hard to envision him turning things around with the Padres, especially in his first start, which will take place in an extremely tough environment for pitchers.
The Rockies are countering with Gonzalez, who hasn’t been very good either, but they have won eight of their last nine at home to bring their record on the season at Coors up to 40-21 – second best in the league. Take the ROCKIES (+120).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
With Arrieta on the mound for the Padres, the Rockies shouldn’t have much trouble getting the bats going Wednesday afternoon. If they come up short in the end, they should still score quite a few runs and keep it close.
Back the ROCKIES +1.5 (-122) or seek a better payout and flip it to ROCKIES -1.5 (+195), as a disastrous Arrieta outing wouldn’t be a shocking outcome.
Over/Under (O/U)
This is a very high total, and rightfully so. Both starting pitchers have struggled, and neither of them are strong bets to have much success Wednesday.
Both teams should put up their fair share of runs and help push this total OVER 13.5 (-125).
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