The San Francisco Giants (77-42) host the New York Mets (59-59) for the second of their three-game set at Oracle Park Tuesday with the first pitch scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco took the series opener Monday 7-5 vs. New York thanks to a 3-run 7th-inning rally that was the difference in the game.
Season series: Giants lead 1-0.
RHP Marcus Stroman is New York’s projected starter. Stroman is 8-11 with a 2.79 ERA (132 1/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 24 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 8 K Thursday vs. the Washington Nationals.
- 2021 road splits: 4-5 with a 2.64 ERA (71 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.02 WHIP and 4.2 K/BB rate in 12 starts.
RHP Logan Webb is on the rubber for the Giants. Webb is 6-3 with a 2.96 ERA (85 IP, 28 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 16 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Win, 7-0, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 8 K Thursday vs. the Colorado Rockies.
- 2021 home splits: 4-0 with a 1.58 ERA (45 IP, 21 ER), 0.98 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB rate in seven starts and one bullpen outing.
Mets at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Giants -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-160) | Giants -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Prediction
Giants 5, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
TAKE the GIANTS (-170) for 1 unit because San Francisco has an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting pitching, bullpen and hitting).
For instance, Webb has been sensational at home this season and he grades out much better than Stroman in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, expected wOBA and expected slugging percentage.
On top of that, San Francisco is 35-12 overall as a home favorite while the Mets are 12-18 overall as a road dog.
Also, both bullpens have been mediocre this month, but the Giants relievers have a 0.57 home run per nine-inning rate while New York’s bullpen has a 1.43 home run per nine-inning rate in August.
Lastly, San Francisco’s lineup ranks in the top five against right-handed pitching in wRC+ and wOBA compared to the Mets hitters who rank 19th in wRC+ and 21st in wOBA vs. righties.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS even though my projected score has the Giants -1.5 (+125) covering because more money is on New York’s run line while more bets have been placed on San Francisco (according to Pregame.com).
Typically, the money column is a better indicator of who the sharps like, and the bets placed column suggests who the average Joe is backing.
Furthermore, I’m leaning to the Mets-Giants being a lower-scoring affair and San Francisco’s run line isn’t a fat enough payout considering New York is 18-12 ATS as a road underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-125) for a one-third unit because both starters are “top of the rotation” guys who are having nice seasons, and these teams have a combined 12-25 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.
Not only that, but there are several Under-friendly trends such as the Under cashing in Webb’s last seven starts as a favorite, in Stroman’s last six starts and four days of rest.
I’m a little leery of backing the Under because the weather forecast predicts nearly 13 mph winds blowing out to left-center field, and New York’s bullpen has been awful in August. But Webb and Stroman’s fly-ball rates are below the MLB average.
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