The Toronto Blue Jays (49-47) and Boston Red Sox (62-39) come off a Tuesday rainout with a Wednesday doubleheader at Fenway Park. Game 2 is expected to begin around 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Steven Matz is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays. Over 17 starts, Matz is 8-5 with a 4.34 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 across 87 IP.
Matz has run into too much contact while yielding too many fly balls of late with a 39% ground-ball rate over his last four starts. A right-leaning Boston lineup owns a 1.000 OPS against him.
RHP Tanner Houck is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. Over five games (three starts), the 25-year-old righty is 0-2 with a 2.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 11.5 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 through 18 IP.
Houck has worked his way around a .348 batting average on balls in play. He typically gets the Red Sox 3-5 innings in his starts (and didn’t pitch much longer in his Triple-A turns before being called up), so figure on a struggling Red Sox bullpen to be heavily involved in this contest.
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Blue Jays at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:22 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Blue Jays +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Red Sox -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays +1.5 (-175) | Red Sox -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Blue Jays 4, Red Sox 3
Money line (ML)
Boston won Monday’s series opener and is 6-1 over its last seven games.
However, the BLUE JAYS (+110) are the best play in this contest. In a runs-versus-runs-allowed analysis, Toronto’s record is seven games below expectations. In a direct-opponent example of that, the Jays have outscored the Red Sox 69-61 but are just 4-8 against them.
Matz has been undone by a .321 BABIP and a high 16.0% rate of fly balls registering as home runs. Houck will expose a scuffling Boston bullpen which may not be in good shape in the second of two games on the day, even with the shortened inning commitment.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the additional juice in this prop.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both offenses look to be overcooked at their current run-per-game outputs. Both went into this week with matching .343 BABIPs in high-leverage situations, and that has served to overinflate their offensive numbers.
Mix in some lean toward Matz, a sub-70 game-time temperature, and the forecast of an inward breeze for this second 7-inning game of the day. BACK UNDER 8.5 (-110).
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