The Philadelphia Phillies (39-41) host the San Diego Padres (49-36) in their three-game series finale Sunday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Philly evened the series after a 4-2 win Saturday as Bryce Harper and 1B Rhys Hoskins hit a combined 3-for-6 with 2 home runs and 4 RBIs.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
LHP Blake Snell makes his 16th start for the Padres. Snell is 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 3-2, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 5 K June 22 against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 36 at-bats with a .167/.279/.194 slash line, 9/5 K/BB, 0 HR and 1 RBI.
RHP Vince Velasquez is on the hill for the Phillies. Velasquez is 3-2 with a 4.22 ERA (64 IP, 30 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 across 12 starts and four relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 4-3, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 7 K Tuesday against the Miami Marlins.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 28 at-bats with a .143/.143/.286 slash line, 11/0 K/BB, 1 HR and 1 RBI.
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Padres at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:01 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+115) | Phillies +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Padres 6, Phillies 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the PADRES (-140) for 1 unit because we are seeing “sharp” line movement towards San Diego and the Padres have the edge in starting and relief pitching and batting.
This game opened with San Diego laying -123 on the money line before the market steamed the Padres up to the current number.
For instance, the Phillies are just 12-16 vs. left-handed starters and their lineup is 21st in hard-hit rate against lefty pitching.
Also, San Diego’s lineup has been hitting the ball well recently; the Padres rank seventh in both wRC+, fifth in hard-hit rate and eighth in wOBA and WAR over the past two weeks.
On the other hand, Philly’s lineup is bottom 7 in WAR, wRC+, wOBA and hard-hit rate over that same time span.
Furthermore, Philly’s bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. For instance, the Phillies relievers have the third-worst WAR, seventh-worst FIP and third-worst left-on-base percentage.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the PADRES -1.5 (+115) for a quarter unit – if at all – because San Diego is one of the nine teams with a winning run line record as a road favorite (15-12 ATS) and Philly is just 5-9 ATS as a home underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (+100) for a half unit because not only did the first two Padres-Phillies games go Under the total but also these teams have a combined 12-15 O/U record when these starters take the mound.
Additionally, even though it draws from a small sample size for both pitchers, each starter has impressive pitching peripherals in their appearances vs. their respective opponents. Also Snell still has some of the best stuff in the game despite a bumpy first few months.
Lastly, the UNDER 9 (+100) is a “contrarian play” as nearly 95% of the money is on the Over, according to Pregame.com, and typically it’s profitable in sports betting fading such a lopsided market.
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