The Miami Marlins (35-46) and Atlanta Braves (40-42) play the finale of a three-game set Sunday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Zach Thompson is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 2-2 with a 1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 18 IP over four starts.
Thompson is coming off his finest performance as a pro, allowing two runs (one earned) and four hits with two walks and a career-high 11 strikeouts in a win against the Washington Nationals last Saturday.
While he is 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in two starts across 11 innings at home, he is 0-2 with a 2.57 ERA across seven innings in two starts away from South Florida.
RHP Charlie Morton is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 86 2/3 IP over 16 starts.
Morton has improved each month this season. He was 2-1 with 4.76 ERA across 28 1/3 innings in five April starts, 2-1 with a 3.77 ERA across 28 2/3 innings in six May showings and 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA across 29 2/3 innings in five starts in June.
The lone loss in June for Morton, however, came June 11 in Miami when he allowed four runs, four hits and four walks in just four innings.
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Marlins at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Marlins +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Braves -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-120) | Braves -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Braves 4, Marlins 2
Money line (ML)
The BRAVES (-175) are a solid option as they look for the bounce back. The first two games in this series have been well pitched, with a total of just six runs. Expect more of the same, with Atlanta edging Miami in another lower scoring affair.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The BRAVES -1.5 (+110) are a solid play behind Morton, as he looks to get Atlanta back into the win column after a disappointing 3-2 setback on Saturday.
Since their 20-run outburst June 30 against the Mets, the Braves offense has scored a total of just seven runs in three games. They also have score four or fewer runs in 14 of the past 15 outings dating back to June 20. In other words, don’t expect a huge offensive outburst, and play the run line lightly.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 8.5 (-105) has easily cashed in the first two games in this series, and it’s a good bet again on Sunday. In fact, the Under is 7-1-1 in the past nine games for the Braves. The Under is also 5-1 in the previous six for the Marlins, and they have scored three or fewer runs in nine of the past 11.
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