The Atlanta Braves (24-25) travel to Flushing, Queens for a three-game set with NL East rival New York Mets (24-20) at Citi Field. First pitch of Game 1 is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta is 5-5 in the last 10 games, splitting a two-game miniseries at the Boston Red Sox following a 3-1 series win over the Pittsburgh Pirates and losing a three-game series with New York last week.
The NL East-leading Mets beat the Colorado Rockies in three straight to win their four-game series and are 6-4 in their last 10 games, which included the Rockies, Miami Marlins and Braves.
Season series: Mets 2-1.
RHP Ian Anderson makes his 10th start for the Braves. Anderson is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA (51 IP, 16 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 20-1, in 6 IP with 0 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 6 K last Friday vs. Pirates.
- Career vs. Mets: 0-1 with 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 BB and 8 K in one start.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 13 at-bats with a .000/.235/.000 slash line and 6/4 K/BB.
RHP Taijuan Walker is the projected starter for the Mets. Walker is 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA (44 IP, 10 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 across eight starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 3 IP with 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 2 K in New York’s 3-1 win over Atlanta May 17.
- Career vs. Braves: 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA (15 IP, 3 ER), 0.67 WHIP and 7.2 K/9 over three starts.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 34 at-bats with a .235/.308/.412 slash line, 7/3 K/BB, 1 HR and 2 RBIs.
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Braves at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Mets +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+110) | Mets +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +105)
Prediction
Braves 5, Mets 1
Money line (ML)
I’m willing to BET the BRAVES (-160) for 1 unit at such a large price point despite Atlanta’s up-and-down play this whole year because Anderson has good stuff, and New York’s lineup is in tatters.
For instance, Anderson was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft and grades in the 77th percentile of exit velocity and 65th percentile of whiff rate.
Also, in Anderson’s first career start against the Mets, he struck out eight batters and had a 2.33 FIP but gave up a 3-run home run to 2B Robinson Cano, who’s serving a suspension.
In fact, several key New York hitters are out of the lineup such as 1B Pete Alonso, 3B J.D. Davis, 2B Jeff McNeil, OF Brandon Nimmo and OF Michael Conforto.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the BRAVES -1.5 (+110) for a half unit as I wouldn’t hate betting Atlanta’s run line instead of the money line, but I prefer Braves outright because their bullpen 19th in WAR and 24th in xFIP.
However, that daunting Atlanta lineup was underperforming through the first seven weeks of the season and is starting to round into form.
Over the past two weeks, the Braves hitters are fourth in both WAR and wRC+ and second in wRC+.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” UNDER 6.5 (+105) for a half unit because if this game is played it’ll be in crappy weather conditions, which I think favors the pitchers who’ve been solid against these respective lineups.
Furthermore, these teams have a combined 7-10 O/U when these starters are on the mound, Atlanta has played to the Under in six straight as a road favorite, and the Under in Braves-Mets is contrarian to a market where 71% of the money is with the Over, according to Pregame.com.
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