The Atlanta Braves (0-1) play the Philadelphia Phillies (1-0) Saturday at 4:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies with MLB picks and predictions.
The Phillies pulled out a 3-2 win in the bottom of the 10th on Opening Day with walk-off 2B Jean Segura single RBI.
Season series: Phillies 1-0.
RHP Charlie Morton takes the mound for his Braves debut after playing for the Tampa Bay Rays from 2019-20. Morton was 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 38 IP across 9 starts.
- 2020 vs. Phillies: 5 innings pitched with 3 ER, 7 H, 8 K, 1 BB and a no-decision in 1 start.
- 2021 Spring Training: 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 8 H, 9 K, 4 BB) over 3 starts.
RHP Zack Wheeler makes his first start of the season against the Braves. Wheeler was 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 71 IP over 11 starts in his first season in Philadelphia.
- 2020 vs. Braves: 0-0 with a 2.13 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 K, 1 BB) in 2 starts.
- Career vs. Braves: 6-5 with a 3.79 ERA (97 1/3 IP, 41 ER, 86 K, 40 BB) in 16 starts.
RISK-FREE FIRST BET! Place your legal, online MLB bets at BetMGM Sportsbook in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offer, terms and conditions apply. Bet now!
Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:00 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Phillies 7, Braves 4
Money line (ML)
Morton was a Cy Young-caliber pitcher from 2017-19 but really had a down year in 2020’s 60-game sprint.
His ERA shot up from 3.24 in 2017-19 to 4.74 last season, and Morton was below the MLB average for the slash metrics (batting average/on-base percentage and slugging percentage) and advanced stats such as exit velocity and ground ball-to-fly ball rate.
We’ll see this season if the 37-year-old Morton has aged out of his peak years or if he regains his somewhat recent dominance.
But, Philadelphia is 4-1 in the last meetings with Atlanta, and the Phillies’ lineup was top-10 on wOBA and wRC+ vs. righties in 2020. So my money is on Morton not having a strong outing Saturday.
BET PHILLIES (-105) for 1 unit.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a “LEAN” towards Phillies +1.5 (-185) because I’d entertain parlaying this run line with another similarly priced favorite or run line for a plus-money payout.
Also, Philadelphia’s bullpen was 9-14 with the worst ERA in the majors last season, which means Atlanta could absolutely steal this game late.
Over/Under (O/U)
We’ve already discussed Morton possibly being washed up and Philadelphia’s solid season last year in the batter’s box, but let’s not forget Atlanta was in the conversation for “best lineup in the majors” in 2020.
Additionally, Wheeler’s second-most used pitch in his arsenal is his sinker, and the Braves mashers—1B Freddie Freeman, LF Marcell Ozuna and RF Ronald Acuña Jr.—have a 50% or better hard-hit rate vs. sinkers.
Finally, Citizens Bank Park was tied for first with home runs, third in FIP of any ballpark in the Majors and the Over has cashed in six of the previous eight Braves-Phillies games.
BET OVER 8 (-105) for 1 unit.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]