One (almost two) major upset later, and things in the Big 12 are now very shaken up. Our previous projections had OU and Texas pegged as the runaway favorites to meet up in the conference championship. Not so much anymore.
The following projections are based on a composite of ten different published rating systems and 20,000 simulations of the remaining Big 12 schedule, updated through week four’s results.
As you can see, OU is currently projected to finish third in the Big 12, missing the Big 12 championship for the first time since its return in 2017. This in spite of OU still having a higher rating than Oklahoma State by about 1.6 points.
If OU has a higher rating than Oklahoma State, why are they less likely to make the championship? Because OU already has one loss, while Oklahoma State is 1-0.
An important distinction: because OU’s rating is still second in the conference, the Sooners still have the second-highest chance of actually winning the conference title (24 percent, down from 56 percent a week ago).
This isn’t saying that Oklahoma State is better than Oklahoma per se, but that starting 0-1 has put a significant dent in OU’s chances of winning the conference.
The following table shows the likelihood that each team will finish in any given position within the conference.
OU now has a 23.5 percent chance to finish third. It’s the most likely outcome, but not by a lot (OU has a 23.1 percent chance to finish second).
Texas is now the easy favorite to finish first with a 59 percent chance.
You can already begin to see some distinctions forming near the bottom. For one, Kansas is all but locked in to last place already with a 97 percent chance. West Virginia is also fairly locked into ninth with 72 percent.
We will continue to update our projections as the season progresses.
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