The Dallas Cowboys’ crushing 31-24 loss to the Chicago Bears on Thursday night was a signature game. The Cowboys have gone through various ups and downs during the 2019 season, but they are now riding a three-game losing streak at the hands of the New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and now the Bears. Technically all is not lost as the Cowboys still hold first place in the woeful NFC East, despite their middling record of 6-7.
It has been an unfortunate turn of events for the Cowboys. The expectations of head coach Jason Garrett leading a star-studded roster into a Super Bowl run now seems like a pipe dream as the team again looked outmatched in every aspect. It was a bad scene and at times it looked liked many players were on the field reluctantly. Here is a breakdown of the good, the bad and mostly the ugly from Thursday’s primetime defeat.
The Good: The Opening Drive
The Cowboys looked like a dominant football team to start the game. Their opening drive was impressive as they gained 75 yards on 17 plays. It elapsed 8:57 of game time and the end result was a rushing touchdown from Ezekiel Elliott for an early 7-0 lead. It was the longest drive of the 2019 season and by the time the Bears got the ball on their first possession there was only 6:03 left in the first quarter.
The Cowboys effortlessly moved the ball at will, and if the opening drive was to be an indication, Cowboys Nation was sure in for a treat on Thursday night. As it would eventually turn out, that wasn’t the case. In truth, there is not many positives to gleam from the loss. Playoff hopes and scenarios aside, it seems like the product on the football field has not matched the hype.
The Bad: Brett Maher
Cowboys’ owner and de facto general manager Jerry Jones has already voiced his opinions about Garrett and the state of his football team. At this point, it is safe to say the entire coaching staff will be allowed to finish up the season uninterrupted with the team’s current playoff positioning. With that fans can likely, sadly expect Garrett’s continued dependency on kicker Brett Maher in crucial situations.
In fairness to him, he has made some long kicks in his two-year tenure. But a couple 60-plus-yard field goals do not make up for the plethora of misses that have plagued the team throughout the season.
Cowboys kicker Brett Maher has now missed 10 field goals this season.
That's more than any kicker in a single season in the last 4 years.
h/t @NFLResearch pic.twitter.com/wlnGRUgXYL
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 6, 2019
For the second-straight week, Maher’s misses had a direct impact on Dallas’ late-game decisions, keeping them more than one-possession down late in the contest when they were finally able to put points on the board. The morale erosion when the offense makes headway only to come away not just empty handed, but gifting the opponent prime field position resonates throughout the sideline for a team barely hanging on to belief they can play a complete game.
To make matters worse in this contest, after Dallas was able to shrink the lead to 24-14 with a touchdown, Maher’s kickoff dribbled out of bounds, starting the Bears off at their 40-yard line.
The Bears went on to score in four more plays, their final points of the game and the final margin of victory; set up by the short field.
The conservative nature of Garrett and the inaccuracy of Maher has been the perfect disaster for a Cowboys team struggling to win in close games. But with three games left in the season the misses will continue to be a problem. Much like their current coaching situation, ownership seems adamant to stick with Maher for the remainder of the season in spite of the mediocrity. The Cowboys’ season in a nutshell.
The Ugly: The Cowboys’ Defense
It was another poor outing for a porous Cowboys defense. They allowed the Bears, led by quarterback Mitchell Trubisky to score 31 points. In addition, the defense had trouble tackling all night, which led to some bonus yards after the catch opportunities for the Bears’ offense.
Mitchell Trubisky threw multiple touchdowns in the opening half of a game for the 4th time in his career.
In the previous 3 instances, Trubisky had a 77.0 comp pct, 12 pass TD, 1 INT, and a 146.1 passer rating … and the @ChicagoBears won all 3 games.#ThursdayNightFootball
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 6, 2019
To put things into perspective, the Cowboys’ defense allowed Trubisky, who is an average QB at best, to pick them apart with surgical precision. To gauge Trubisky’s season from an analytical standpoint, ESPN’s Total QBR is a good measuring stick. According to their metric, Trubisky currently ranks No. 27 in the league with a a QBR of 43.0 for the season. A Pro-Bowl caliber player is rated with a QBR of 75. Against the Cowboys Trubisky produced a QBR of 80.6.
Another was to measure Trubisky and the rest of the Bears’ offensive efficiency is through the use of Expected Points Added (EPA). The nflscrapR package provides this data, with EPA measuring the value of a play given down, distance to first downs and field position.
This chart illustrates the Bears’ offensive efficiency, or lack thereof, over the course of the season. For the most part, the Bears have struggled to produce on the offensive end of the spectrum. Their EPA/play was usually well below zero, which means that the majority of their plays were unsuccessful.
Against the Cowboys in Week 14, they saw one of their biggest offensive breakouts of the season. The Cowboys’ defense surrendered 0.36 EPA per pass play, which is the Bears’ greatest mark of 2019.
Overall, this was a daunting loss for the Cowboys who were the road favorites against a Bears team led by Trubisky. There was hope the Cowboys would bounce back in Week 14 after their stunning defeat by the Bills on Thanksgiving. The team had a chance to prove they were a resilient bunch, able to withstand a string of losses. Now, after a three game losing streak and a record of 6-7, this team is treading the same old ground to end the 2019 season.
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