The Wisconsin Badgers are not expected to beat the Ohio State Buckeyes this Saturday night. We don’t need a long dissertation on why that is the case. As Jim Harbaugh and Michigan could tell you, one can play reasonably well against the Buckeyes for a quarter or even 25 minutes, and yet against Justin Fields and this stacked offense, it probably won’t matter. Wisconsin played a virtually flawless first half on defense against Ohio State on Oct. 26, and that didn’t matter, either.
The margin for error is so slim against the 2019 Buckeyes. In any sport, a fundamental measure of excellence is the ability to win a game in many different ways. Ohio State embodies that. Take away the downfield pass? The Buckeyes can run. Take away Justin Fields’ scrambling? He can throw well enough to win. Contain the Buckeyes’ offense, as Penn State did? Fine. Ohio State’s defense can take over. If you neutralize Ohio State’s speed, the Buckeyes can overpower you. Wisconsin faces a tall task against the Buckeyes in Indianapolis in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Yet, some people felt that Ohio State — needing a “style points” performance to make the 2017 College Football Playoff — was going to blow the doors off the 2017 Badgers in the Big Ten Championship Game. That blowout never happened… and Wisconsin could have won if one component of its performance had been better on that night. This is where Jack Coan reenters the picture in the second half of a short two-part package on the Badgers’ quarterback.
We know that Coan didn’t move the sticks enough in Columbus on Oct. 26. Wisconsin’s offense didn’t control the ball long enough or well enough to keep the defense fresh, which eventually took its toll in a 60-minute game. Wisconsin’s defense stood tall without the offense’s help in the first 30 minutes, but that was not sustainable for the whole game. The second 30 minutes caved in on the Badgers, and that was that.
The 2017 Big Ten Championship Game was revisited earlier this week at Badgers Wire, through the prism of what Wisconsin did well. The Badgers took the ball away, stood tall in the red zone, and held the ball for 34 minutes. (I’d say they need to improve upon that 34-minute number. Let’s see if UW can get to 38 this Saturday.)
What Wisconsin failed to do in 2017 against the Buckeyes: Throw the ball efficiently.
Alex Hornibrook spent most of the 2017 season doing what Coan could not do against Ohio State in late October: Move the chains on third and medium. Hornibrook didn’t always look great, but in 2017, he often came through on third down. That was the reason Wisconsin had its best season under Paul Chryst. Against Ohio State in the 2017 Big Ten Championship Game, Hornibrook completed just 19 of 40 passes with two interceptions. Wisconsin was 5 of 16 on third downs. The three takeaways generated by the defense, plus an insistence on running the ball, enabled the Badgers to somehow accumulate 34 minutes of possession in spite of their passing stats. Had Hornibrook completed 27 of his 40 passes instead of 19, imagine how different this game — which ended 27-21 in favor of Ohio State — could have been.
This is the segue to Jack Coan: We saw him hit nearly 70 percent of his passes against Minnesota. More precisely, he hit nearly 70 percent of his passes against Minnesota while being aggressive in the passing game. This wasn’t a “Checkdown Charlie” collection of dump-offs and concessions. Coan sought to throw the ball vertically — not necessarily deep balls, but certainly the intermediate passing range beyond six or seven yards. Coan established a standard against Minnesota which, if carried into Indianapolis against Ohio State, gives Wisconsin’s offense a chance to be diverse, potent, and dynamic.
If you thought the Minnesota game represented the height of Jack Coan’s powers — and the productivity of the UW offense — coming to Indy and its offense-friendly dome conditions could increase the upside of the Badgers’ attack to an even greater degree. That is a fun thought to have as Wisconsin plays for a return to the Rose Bowl.