This past week, all 25 teams ranked by the CFP selection committee were in action. With so many games, a trend that has been slowly developing over the year came to full fruition.
We haven’t seen many upsets at the top of the game this year. And while we have seen some matchups of Top 15 teams–mostly involving Auburn or Michigan–we have yet to really see top teams get upset, or matchups between serious contenders. (Yes, we have had a few, most notably Alabama-LSU, but there have been far fewer than in most years.) That will change over the final few weeks of the season, whether due to scheduled matchups or conference championship games.
While there haven’t been many upsets at the top of the rankings. We’ve had plenty at this bottom. This past week, three of the committee’s teams ranked 19-25 lost, plus a pretty weak display from Cincinnati, for the second time in three weeks. Don’t be surprised if the committee drops the Bearcats a little after this performance.
What that leaves us with is essentially a two-tier ranking system. And while we can subdivide each tier further, the breakdown of the tiers will be very important.
The Top 17 teams are basically locked into those spots. LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Oregon, Utah, Minnesota, Penn State, Oklahoma, Florida, Auburn, Baylor, Wisconsin, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Iowa will be the Top 17 teams from here on out. A shocking upset could knock one of these teams out, sure, and Baylor could fall out on its own by losing two of its final three games (to Texas and then again in the Big 12 Championship Game). Other than that Baylor case, though (and assuming no one does something crazy like lose to Northwestern or an FCS team), these 17 teams will be ranked the rest of the way, no matter what, and will like be the Top 17 the rest of the way.
From 18 on down, though, is anybody’s guess. We could see AAC teams stay in, though they’ve been less impressive as the season has gone on. Also, Cincinnati and Memphis still have to face each other. Appalachian State and Boise State can stay ranked by winning out, but one more loss will end any rankings the rest of the way. Maybe SMU slides back in this week.
After that, though, what’s left? What teams are we looking at to be ranked in the back section of the Top 25? Pitt, Virginia, and/or Virginia Tech could slide in, though Pitt plays Virginia Tech this week, and Virginia faces Virginia Tech next week, so only one of those three, at most, will likely be ranked by season’s end. Are we looking at Iowa State, with as impressive a four-loss resume as we’ve seen in a while?
17 teams have basically locked up their year-end rankings, with two weeks left in the regular season. The other eight spots in the Top 25, though, are entirely up for grabs. Who does this help most? Quite clearly, the Pac 12.