What 5 NCAA Tournament games appear to be the best bets and the best picks for the over/under point totals going into first round on Friday?
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The unpredictability and irrationality of the games themselves are what define the NCAA Tournament. As you’re reading this, your bracket is already busted – really, it is, you just don’t know it yet.
Point totals are different.
Point totals don’t care if that 14 beats the 3 or if the 2 beat the 15 by 54. Here, you should be a wee bit more in control of your investment.
Here are five NCAA Tournament first round Friday games that appear to be a wee bit favorable when it comes to the over/under and point total.
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
5. (3) Arkansas vs (14) Colgate
Point Total: 161.5
Pick: Under
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Even for two high-powered college offenses, 161.5 is a massive number.
Easy math, that means at least one team has to be in the 80s to get there, and that shouldn’t be a problem. The concern is likely going to be Arkansas and how much it wins by.
Colgate averages 86 points per game, but as I pointed out in the 5 Best Picks Against The Spread piece, you and four friends could’ve hung at least 70 on the board against the teams on the Raider schedule.
Arkansas averages over 82 a game, and it’s probably going to get there and then some. How much does the Hog D want to slow down a Colgate offense that scores in bunches, but again, is taking a massive step up in competition?
The best comp to use is the Arkansas 87-76 win over Oral Roberts back in late December. The Golden Eagles bomb away as well as any team in the country – they’re playing Ohio State in the first round – and that game barely got past the 161.5 mark.
Forget the seed, Oral Roberts is a more dangerous team than Colgate – again, forget the stats and look at the competition.
Arkansas-Colgate is more likely an 85-68 type of game than any sort of an even shootout, and even then, there’s a chance the Hogs put this away and sort of coast.
Only nine of the 28 games Arkansas played got to over 161.5 and one of them was in overtime.
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