3. Nevada at New Mexico State
LINE Nevada -9
ATS PICK Nevada
The line opened at Nevada -17.5 and dropped like a rock almost immediately.
This isn’t your Nevada team of 2021.
It lost the head coach, a slew of the key parts from the high-powered offense, and there’s a rebuild happening here, but the offense will still be okay.
New head coach Ken Wilson has a team full of brand new starters, but the transfer portal helped, the skill parts are okay, and New Mexico State is New Mexico State.
Jerry Kill is a terrific head coach who’ll instantly make the Aggies better. However, the offense is almost completely starting over with the receiving corps, the defense has to prove it’s night-and-day better after allowing close to 500 yards and 40 points per game, and there’s a prove-it factor here.
New Mexico State beat UMass and South Carolina State. It lost to San Jose State by six, and didn’t come closer than 14 points against anyone else including a 55-28 loss to Nevada.
The Wolf Pack won’t roll that easily, but NMSU lost by double-digits in ten of its last 13 games and in 17 of its last 24. The nine isn’t enough.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 2 Vanderbilt at Hawaii