3 keys to Packers beating the Vikings on Monday night

Breaking down the three big keys for the Packers as they prepare to take on the Vikings in Week 16.

The Green Bay Packers have a chance to win the NFC North by securing their first-ever win at U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night.

Here are the Packers’ keys to beating the Vikings:

Win the rushing battle

The Vikings have won the rushing battle in 10 of their 14 games this season. They are 9-1 in those 10 games, with the one loss coming to the Packers in Week 2 at Lambeau Field. When losing the rushing battle in the four other games, the Vikings are 1-3, with a 20-point comeback against the Denver Broncos serving as the only win.

The Packers can really help their chances of securing a first win at U.S. Bank Stadium by winning the rushing battle on Monday night.

The Vikings are a run-first offense by design. They are 29th in the NFL in passing attempts but third in rushing attempts. Everything the Vikings do is about winning at the line of scrimmage, setting up the play-action pass and dominating time of possession and flow of the game.

Luckily for the Packers, the Vikings will be without Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook, and his top backup Alexander Mattison is questionable. Mike Boone would be the starter if Mattison can’t go.

The Packers have improved against the run in the last month. Kenny Clark is dominating again, the run fits look cleaner and the second-level players are playing more downhill, but they’ll all be challenged Monday night by a strong run-blocking offensive line and a playcaller that stays committed to the run.

Matt LaFleur’s team will feel really good about its chances if they can contain the Vikings run game and get Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams going on offense.

Remember, Jones rushed for 116 yards on a season-high 23 carries in the first meeting. Cook, who produced 154 rushing yards and a 75-yard score, won’t play. It will take a terrific effort on both sides, but the Packers can be the more productive run team on Monday night.

Win the turnover battle

The Packers forced four turnovers in the first meeting, including a fumble recovery that led to a touchdown and an interception in the end zone that helped preserve a late fourth-quarter lead.

The Vikings are 1-3 when losing the turnover battle this season. The Packers are 1-2. However, the Packers are 10-0 when forcing at least one turnover.

Protecting the football remains a winning strategy for LaFleur’s team. The Packers lead the NFL with nine games without a turnover, and they’re 8-1 in those games.

Monday night will be a battle between two offenses that don’t turn the ball over and two defenses highly capable of taking the ball away. Both teams rank in the top 10 of turnover percentage on offense (Packers, second; Vikings, 10th) and in the top five of takeaway percentage on defense (Vikings, third; Packers, fifth).

The Vikings are coming off a win in Los Angeles that included seven takeaways.

The Packers have lost the turnover battle each of the last three years at U.S. Bank Stadium. No wonder they’re still winless in the new venue.

Win the pressure battle

The Packers kept the heat on Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins in the first meeting. He was under some level of pressure on roughly two-thirds of his dropbacks in Week 2, resulting in one sack, six quarterback hits, six throwaways and two turnovers.

Can the Packers replicate that effort on Monday night? Cousins is a highly accurate quarterback when kept clean. At home this season, he’s completing over 80 percent of his passes. Not getting consistent pressure could mean consistent explosive gains for the Vikings offense.

Mike Pettine needs a big night from Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Kenny Clark and his various blitz looks. Keeping Cousins uncomfortable might be the No. 1 key to the game for the Packers defense.

On the flip side, the Packers offensive line is facing one of its toughest tests of the year. Not only do the Vikings have two highly productive edge rushers (Everson Griffen, Danielle Hunter) and other capable interior pocket-collapsers, but the crowd noise at U.S. Bank Stadium can be deafening, especially on third down and other high leverage situations.

During last year’s meeting in Minnesota, Rodgers took four sacks and was hit five times. Three of the four sacks came on third down.

The Packers can’t let the Vikings be the most disruptive pass-rushing team on Monday night. Mike Zimmer’s team feeds off the energy produced in U.S. Bank Stadium when the defense gets after the quarterback in big situations.