The Buffalo Bills will play the Indianapolis Colts on the road at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 10.
The Bills (7-2) are looking to build on a four-game win streak, the latest being a nail-biter against the Miami Dolphins. The Colts (4-5) are on a two-game losing streak, dropping close games to the Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings.
Buffalo is favored by four points in this one but recent history suggests otherwise. The team hasn’t won in Indianapolis since 1999 when Doug Flutie was under center. They have lost in their last six tries.
When the Bills try to end that streak on Sunday, they’ll be going against a very competitive ball club. All nine of the Colts’ games this year have been decided by one score or less.
The Bills will need to execute their game plan to pick up their eighth win of the year.
With that, here are three keys to a Bills win in Week 10:
Limit big runs from Jonathan Taylor
Many are now doubting the Bills’ ability to stop the run after they were gashed by Dolphins runners De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. But, even though both averaged over five yards per carry in the game, the Buffalo didn’t allow them to have big runs.
After allowing a run of 20 yards in four of their first six games this year, the Bills haven’t allowed one in their last three games.
Enter Jonathan Taylor. In his one career game vs. the Bills in 2021, he ran for 185 yards and five touchdowns in a Colts blowout win.
After Taylor had a rough outing last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, you know he is looking to get back on track. He will most likely get chunks of yards at times, but if the Bills can make sure none slip away for big gains, it will help their chances on the road.
A balanced attack
The best teams in the NFL are labeled that way because they can attack you in different ways. The Bills are no exception. They have leaned into a balanced approach under offensive coordinator Joe Brady and they have reaped the benefits.
It is no longer quarterback Josh Allen dropping back and trying to create something for the majority of the time. According to FTN Fantasy, the Bills rank seventh in the NFL in rushing DVOA while ranking third in passing. They are elite in both categories.
The Colts’ defense, on the other hand, is lacking in both categories. They rank 28th in passing DVOA and 17th in rushing. The Bills will have opportunities on offense, but tipping your hand and neglecting either the pass or run would make things more difficult than necessary.
Stay close to Josh Downs
Joe Flacco loves to throw it to slot receiver Josh Downs. In he four games with Flacco under center, here are Downs’ numbers per game:
- 9.75 targets
- 7.5 catches
- 69.25 receiving yards
- 0.5 touchdowns
In a run-heavy offense for Indy, Downs has been the most targeted wide receiver on a per-game basis, and he has the most receiving yards per game. He also adds an average of 5.0 yards after the catch, per Fantasy Pros.
It would be a big boost if the Bills’ defense could hold Downs to minimal gains after the catch.
He likes to sit underneath in the holes of defenses, with an average depth of target of 6.6 yards. He’ll be a focal point of the Bills coverage in Week 10, and he draws a tough matchup with Taron Johnson in the slot.
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