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2023 Mountain West Football Championship: Eight Statistics That Could Decide The Game
The clash between Boise State and UNLV may revolve around several key facets of the game. We dive into the numbers you need to know.
Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire
Stats don’t lie.
10.5
There are many reasons why UNLV quarterback Jayden Maiava was tabbed as the Mountain West’s freshman of the year, but one of the most significant is that few quarterbacks anywhere in the country were as dangerous as the Las Vegas native throughout recent weeks. In four November games, Maiava averaged 10.5 yards on exactly 100 pass attempts, one of just four FBS quarterbacks to manage that feat in that stretch.
The others, by the way: LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Oregon’s Bo Nix, and Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel. That’s pretty good company to keep, especially when you also throw seven touchdowns and just two interceptions as Maiava did. While it may be asking a lot for the redshirt freshman to reach that high bar one more time, don’t dismiss that it could happen.
13
It won’t be a secret that Boise State will want to run the ball with Ashton Jeanty, George Holani, and Jambres Dubar, but can UNLV be disruptive enough in the front seven to keep the Broncos from running wild? According to CollegeFootballData.com, the Rebels have an overall defensive stuff rate of 13%, the frequency with which they stop plays at or behind the line of scrimmage, and the front seven has a havoc rate (any play which generates a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup) of 8.4%.
For the sake of comparison, Boise State’s defensive stuff rate and front seven havoc rate are 18% and 11.2%, respectively. Considering the aforementioned Broncos trio has averaged 5.8 yards per carry on the season, however, it will be imperative for Jalen Dixon, Darius Johnson, and the rest of the UNLV defensive front to stand tall and keep the game from getting away.
26.4
One way or another, field position is going to be a critical part of the Mountain West championship. On the one hand, according to Parker Fleming, 26.4 represents the average starting position of Boise State opponents’ drives, the 14th-best average in FBS and a credit to the efforts of punter James Ferguson-Reynolds; on the other hand, 26.4 also happens to be the amount of yards that UNLV’s Jacob De Jesus averaged per kickoff return in the regular season, the highest average in the conference.
That’s just one reason why the Rebels offense started with the fourth-best field position in the country, from the 32.9-yard line on average, and it isn’t unreasonable to think both could bring their best to the table on Saturday. It’d make for a fascinating chess match.
37.3
Few players in the Mountain West were as dominant in the second half of the season as UNLV wide receiver Ricky White, so it isn’t surprising that the Rebels sought to take advantage of his tear at every turn. That’s why, per Parker Fleming, White’s 115 targets equate to a 37.3% team target share that is the highest of any pass catcher playing on championship Saturday. Needless to say, Boise State’s cornerbacks are going to have their hands full slowing down this particular freight train: White has ripped off at least 100 receiving yards in six of his last seven games.
41.3
According to Pro Football Focus, 24 different Mountain West defensive backs were thrown at 40 or more times throughout the regular season. Five are playing in the Mountain West championship game, but one also happens to have the lowest completion rate allowed among that cohort.
That would be Boise State cornerback A’Marion McCoy, who started five games for the Broncos in the second half of the campaign and gave up only 19 catches on 43 targets, a 41.3% rate. He also allowed 13.4 yards per reception, meaning that he might be the key to addressing the explosive Ricky White in pass coverage.
83.33
One thing that UNLV has done very well in recent weeks is that they’ve rarely wasted an opportunity to put six points on the board when they push into the red zone. Through four November games, the Rebels have scored 15 touchdowns on 18 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, an 83.33% rate that not only tops the Mountain West but is tied for the fifth-best rate in the country down the stretch.
By contrast, the Boise State defense has knuckled down more frequently in those same situations. Though they’ve given up a touchdown on 65.85% of opponents’ red zone trips throughout the 2023 season (10th in the Mountain West), that figure has dropped to 45.45% in November. If both sides battle to a draw here, it might make for a photo finish when all is said and done.
89.1
Then again, if it comes down to the kicking game, both Boise State and UNLV have reasons to be confident. That’s because the Rebels’ Jose Pizano, a Lou Groza Award finalist, and the Broncos’ Jonah Dalmas have combined to put 41-of-46 field goals through the uprights, an 89.1% success rate. Dalmas is also 9-of-10 on attempts from 40 or more yards away while Pizano is 6-of-9, so there may at least bit a slight bit of difference in Spencer Danielson’s and Barry Odom’s decision making when things get murky on the far side of midfield.
23,661
How much of a homefield advantage will UNLV have at Allegiant Stadium on Saturday? Through six home games, the Rebels have an average attendance of 23,661 fans which averages out to just 36.4% of the facility’s overall capacity. Granted, no one is expecting a sellout of 65,000 strong, but a home team hasn’t won the Mountain West crown since 2019 and a new season-high showing of the scarlet and gray faithful, at least, could be the kind of critical X-factor that Boise State often benefits from themselves at Albertsons Stadium.
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