2021 NFL Offseason: What is best case scenario for the Falcons?

After starting fresh with a new general manager and coaching staff, there are a number of paths the Falcons could take this offseason.

After starting fresh with a new general manager and coaching staff, there are a number of paths the Falcons could take this offseason. However, not all paths are the same, with some being better than others.

So what’s the best possible scenario for the team in the 2021 offseason? I’ve broken it down into three steps.

Getting under the cap

To start off, general manager Terry Fontenot has to deal with the team being $31 million over the salary cap. In order to comply with this year’s projected cap, the Falcons could save themselves a total of $43 million by cutting Ricardo Allen, Allen Bailey, James Carpenter and restructuring Deion Jones, Grady Jarrett, Jake Matthews, and Julio Jones.

While this $43 million is enough to get under the cap, Atlanta’s active roster count is the lowest in the league, meaning the Falcons need to have enough money on hand to spend on player acquisitions.

In addition to the $43 million in savings, the Falcons could find a trade partner for Dante Fowler to save $13 million while incurring a dead money hit of $4.6 million. However, this trade would need to be official after June 1.

Also, albeit highly controversial, the team could save a total of $17.5 million by giving Matt Ryan a contract extension. Simply restructuring Ryan’s contract would save the Falcons $14.6 million regardless. It’ll be up to Fontenot to decide if the extra three million is worth it to keep Ryan in Atlanta longer.

All in all, these roster moves could give the Falcons a max savings of just under $75 million in cap space, which would give the team just under $43 million to work with.

Normally, there wouldn’t be a need for this many contract restructures, but given how the salary cap is projected to drop to around $180 million, it may be the team’s only option.. The salary cap is expected to go back to normal in 2022 — to around $220 million.

Being active in free agency

With roughly $43 million to work with, the team could afford to be relatively active in free agency. The first step the Falcons should take is to re-sign kicker Younghoe Koo. Then, the team should beef up the offensive line. One potential option is Patriots guard Joe Thuney.

However, bringing in Thuney would be pricey. Spotrac has him valued at just over $15 million, taking up a large portion of the Falcons cap space in this given scenario.

So this gives the Falcons just about $25.5 million left to spend with Koo and Thuney signed.

Another area of need is the safety position, Rams safety John Johnson could be a player to fill this void. Jeremy Fowler from ESPN even believes Johnson would be a solid fit in Atlanta.

“The Rams will likely attempt to keep Johnson, whose football savvy will get him paid, but Atlanta’s safety position is a major need, with Ricardo Allen the only veteran under contract with legitimate starter’s experience. Cutting Allen would save $6.25 million on the cap. The Falcons could use that money to secure Johnson, a building block for Arthur Smith’s first season. Watch for the Raiders, too, as Jon Gruden attempts to solidify his secondary.”

Johnson has a market value of $8.3 million, which would leave the Falcons with more than enough cap space for the draft and other minimal free agent signings.

Trading back in the draft

To round this out, what the Falcons do at the No. 4 selection in the NFL draft is very important. Looking at Matt Tabeek’s Atlanta Falcons mock draft tracker on atlantafalcons.com, many experts are predicting the Falcons to pick a quarterback.

I have Atlanta going a different route. With several teams in the market for a quarterback, the Falcons would get better value trading backwards in the draft to acquire more picks.

By using the trade value chart, the San Francisco 49ers could give Atlanta their first, second, and third-round selections to move up to No. 4. This would give the Falcons a chance for immediate success, and a total of 12 draft picks.

However, if the 49ers are unwilling to give up that much immediate capital, then the Falcons could potentially work a similar offer with the New England Patriots, but receive their 15th overall selection and their second-round selection for 2021 and 2022.

Having this many draft picks would surely help Atlanta fill out the roster and add some much-needed depth.

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