We’re quickly approaching NFL free agency, one of the most exciting times of the year. As veterans continue to be traded and released in the weeks ahead, nothing is official until March 17 at 4 p.m. EDT. That won’t stop us from getting energized about any news, nor will it prevent a look ahead at possible scenarios.
Here are the positional breakdowns of known unrestricted free agent quarterbacks who may present fantasy football utility in 2021. Each player’s 2020 team is in parentheses.
2021 fantasy football free agents to watch
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys): Coming off of a devastating ankle injury that required a pair of surgeries, Prescott will become a free agent in March, provided Dallas doesn’t secure his services via the franchise tag again or a long-term deal.
Expectation: This one will get worked out one way or another with Prescott remaining a Cowboy.
Jameis Winston (New Orleans Saints): It appears a foregone conclusion at this point that we’ve seen the last NFL pass from Drew Brees. With that in mind, the Saints could be prepared to offer Winston another one-year “prove it” deal that would have to be cap-friendly for the team with the least amount of money to spend. Talent alone, Winston is in a tier of his own after Prescott in this year’s natural class of free agents.
Expectation: Did Sean Payton see enough in practice to award Winston a shot at the starting job — all while starting Taysom Hill over the former Buccaneer? Hard to say, but reports suggest New Orleans is not out on Winston just yet. The biggest factor is whether Winston wants to settle for a lesser contract and a chance to start for a familiar, playoff-caliber team, or will he prefer to take the most lucrative offer after playing on a $1.1 million deal in 2020. He’s the true wild card of this group. Don’t write off Chicago, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Houston. Smart money puts him back in the Big Easy, however.
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Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago Bears): The former No. 2 overall pick has weathered a turbulent career thus far, and if it had not been for the Bears declining his fifth-year option, the team wouldn’t find itself in a predicament of sorts. Trubisky came to life as the season wore along, and it was obvious he developed more comfort in Bill Lazor’s system once the rust was shaken from the abbreviated offseason.
Expectation: Chicago still has Nick Foles under contract, and given an ominous yet favorable $6.66 million cap charge for a team up against it, the believe is Trubisky walks. While it wouldn’t be ideal, Foles may be granted a legit shot to start while the Bears work to find viable future at the position.
Cam Newton (New England Patriots): Recency bias affects us all, including NFL general managers. Newton was mostly a trash bin of flaming garbage in 2020. In his defense, he was coming off of surgery, had no offseason program, signed rather late with the team, needed to learn a complex offense, many key figures were missing from the Patriots, and the offense had basically no weapons in the passing game. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln …
Expectation: Washington is an intriguing situation if something goes south with Alex Smith returning to the club. Smith, entering his age-37 season, reportedly intends to play in 2021. Signing in Washington would pair Newton with his former head coach, GM and offensive coordinator/QBs coach. It also would bring him to a roster on the rise. Denver is on the short list, too. Drew Lock can sit and watch as Newton joins a much better roster. Indianapolis turned to a veteran game manager in Rivers last year. Newton could be an option if all else fails. Don’t totally rule out the Patriots settling on giving Cam one more year, although it’s a long shot at this stage.
Jacoby Brissett (Indianapolis Colts): The 2019 starter was relegated to a backup role in 2020, serving behind Philip Rivers. The latter has opted for retirement, and the Colts are in need of a quarterback. Carson Wentz appears to be the front-runner via trade, but Brissett shouldn’t be automatically discounted if the Wentz angle falls apart. That said, Brissett has extremely limited fantasy appeal even if he were to return as Indy’s starter.
Expectation: He will serve as a backup once again in 2021, probably winding up back with the Colts on a one-year deal. New England could be in play. Even as a 2019 starter, Brissett barely offered matchup-based utility for fantasy purposes.
Potential free agents to watch
Due to a likely shrinking salary cap, some teams will be in a bind more than expected when these contracts were signed.
Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers): After restructuring last year to help the team, the soon-to-be 39-year-old carries a ridiculous $41 million cap charge in 2021. He said he wants to return and doesn’t care about his salary. The team hasn’t officially said it is moving on from him, but they’ll eat $22.25 mill if he is released. Sure, that’s a significant savings, but one has to question if it’s worth it. It’s easy to forget this team was 11-0 prior to being ravaged by injuries on defense.
Expectation: Creative maneuvering could see him get extended by a year to help spread the cap implications down the line. No matter what, with a huge hit from dead money looming, it’s hard to see Big Ben playing for anyone else in 2021.
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Alex Smith (Washington Football Team): Nearly age 37, Smith will be at a crossroad. Reports say he intends to play in 2021 after a miraculous return to the field this past season. Smith is due to count $24.4 million — basically average — against Washington’s cap in 2021, and releasing him would create $10.8 million in dead cap, accelerating $5.4 million from 2022.
Expectation: Should he get released, Smith will draw interest from several teams looking for a cerebral stopgap with the playoffs in sight (New England comes to mind). QB Taylor Heinicke was signed to a middling contract, and Washington has cap options that don’t include releasing Smith, so this one comes down to whether new general manager Marty Hurney and coach Ron Rivera are on the same page about Smith as the starter in 2021. Look for him to stick around one more year.
Jimmy Garoppolo (San Francisco 49ers): If someone better comes along via trade, San Fran will explore it. Until there’s a bona fide replacement in sights, Garoppolo should return on a modest charge of $26.4 million against the cap. Parting ways with him will not be an issue financially. The 49ers will incur just $2.8 million in total dead space if he’s shown the door.
Expectation: Unless someone with the pedigree of Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson (never going to happen) comes available, there’s a heck of a lot of smoke coming from this puny fire.
Carson Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles): The $128 million extension signed in 2019 is looming large over what Philly can realistically do with Wentz. He has three years remaining after the 2021 season, and there’s no reasonable way the Eagles can cut him in 2021. His 2022 salary becomes partially guaranteed at $15 million as of the third day of the 2021 league calendar (March 19), which puts Philly on the hook for this year and the next, should he remain with the club. Trading him would put $9.27 million of his cap with the Eagles, sending the remaining $25.4 million to the new team’s books for 2021, creating a net of $33.8 in dead money in 2021 — about a million less than paying him to stay. Should Wentz remain with the Eagles this season, the out becomes much easier after the 2021 campaign. He would cost “only” $24.55 million in dead money against the ’22 cap. The NFL record for an individual is Brandin Cooks at $21.8M in unusable moolah this past season.
Expectation: The Colts have been long rumored to be in the market for Wentz, which only makes sense given their coach and a need for a quarterback. Philly can trade him now, taking a massive initial cap hit but know they’re off the hook for the guaranteed money in 2022 and a potential distraction in the locker room in the meantime. The Eagles should take the best offer they can leverage, despite having none, even if it’s going to sting a little in the back pocket.