For months now, Detroit Lions fans have been preparing themselves for the 2020 NFL Draft. Many have done mock drafts, conducted trade down scenarios, and fallen in love with prospects.
While speculating how the Lions can maximize their value can be a fun exercise, it’s important to remember, making trades in real life is significantly more challenging than through a mock draft machine.
The same is true with players perceived value. Often draft sites and national analysts will hype up players that fans get excited about, but they don’t fit the Lions scheme and will, therefore, be much lower on the Lions draft board. The opposite of this is also true, players who fans haven’t heard of can be very high on the Lions board because of how perfectly they fit the scheme — hello, Jahlani Tavai.
So, with less than a week before this year’s NFL Draft, allow me to throw some cold water on Lions’ fan’s expectations and present 10 potential scenarios they need to brace themselves for.
Lions stay put at pick No. 3, draft CB Jeff Okudah
I still firmly believe the Lions top priority is walking out of this draft with either Chase Young or Okudah. If they don’t get an offer where they feel they can make that happen, Bob Quinn has shown he is willing to stay put and take his guy.
If the Lions do trade down… it may be for DT Derrick Brown
Brown isn’t an elite athlete, but he hits the athletic benchmarks for the Lions and fits the scheme like a glove. If the Lions do trade down, it’ll likely be because they’re a lot higher on Brown that most expect and would be comfortable landing him and picks over just Okudah.
Expect a team to trade ahead of the Lions to take a coveted player away from them
Quinn has often been able to sniff out these types of moves in the past, but this year the circumstances are different. With the Lions picking third on each day of the draft, and current COVID-19 pandemic shifting the way NFL teams do business, anticipate teams to try to execute trades at the top of the draft during the downtimes in between rounds one and two, as well as, three and four.
If a team like the Bengals want to move out of pick No. 33 or No. 107 to gain more draft capital, the Lions could get jumped for a player they covet.
Lions trade up on Day 2 to get their guy
In the past two drafts, Quinn has traded up twice — in 2018 to grab Kerryon Johnson and in 2019 for Will Harris — and both times it happened on Day 2. Quinn has shown if he has a target on his board that he feels the team needs to secure, he is willing to make moves in order to make that happen.
Lions draft DT McTelvin Agim in the third round
Every year, Quinn surprises Lions fans with a pick on Day 2 that they know little about — Kenny Golladay, Tracy Walker, and Jahlani Tavai are prime examples. This year, if you don’t want to be surprised, the name to know is Arkansas’ defensive tackle McTelvin Agim. An intelligent 2-gapper, Agim has four years starting experience at defensive end and tackle, was a captain in 2019, checks every athletic box the Lions are looking for, can pass rush, set the edge, and is an excellent run stuffer.
McTelvin Agim, DL, Arkansas
1st clip Agim is to quick for the C – he gets the TFL.
2nd is same play but C tries a cut block – Agim is to quick/balanced and avoids it.
3rd Agim uses Patricia's favorite bull rush to get the TFL.
4th Agim lines up at 0T, stack and shed for stop. pic.twitter.com/QlrDPxqpzU— Erik Schlitt (@erikschlitt) April 11, 2020
If the Lions draft an offensive lineman on Day 2 … it will probably be a tackle
The Lions have a glaring need at right guard or tackle, but don’t be surprised if the Lions draft an offensive tackle first.
The Lions value tackles considerably higher than guards, left tackle Taylor Decker is in a contract year, and if the Lions want a player capable of starting at left tackle in 2021, they’ll need to use a Top-100 pick to acquire that level of prospect.
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Don’t be surprised if the Lions wait until Day 3 to draft a guard
This will be unpopular but the Lions don’t appear to put a premium at the position. The sweet spot for interior offensive linemen appears to be in the late third or early fourth rounds and the Lions may prioritize other positions first, hoping a quality player is there at pick No. 109 in the fourth round.
The Lions may wait until Day 3 to draft an EDGE
Another decision that will be wildly unpopular but would line up with how the Lions have addressed the position in the past. In Quinn’s four years drafting for the Lions, he has taken four EDGE rushers, two in the sixth round, one in the seventh, and Austin Bryant in the fourth round last draft.
Lions probably won’t draft a RB before the 5th round… if at all
There is a solid argument for targeting one of the elite running backs early in this draft, but with the investment the Lions already have at the position, it’s more likely they target a back mid-Day 3 to work within the rotation.
Pick No. 149 is likely where the Lions draft a punter
Taking a kicking specialist may seem like a luxury, but for a team that is targeting a top option, they will have to enter the draft prepared to spend.
Last season the first specialist came off the board, punter Matt Wishnowsky, at pick No. 110 (49ers), followed soon after by kicker Matt Gay at pick No. 145 (Tampa Bay) and two more specialists in the fifth round.
In 2018, the Seahawks snagged punter Michael Dickenson at pick No. 149 — the exact pick the Lions hold — followed by three more specialists in the fifth round and two more in the seventh round.
In 2017, the Bengals drafted kicker Jake Elliot at pick No. 153, followed by two more kickers in the seventh round.
The pattern is pretty clear. If the Lions have their sites set on the top punter on the board — most likely Braden Mann (TAMU) — they should be prepared to use pick No. 149 to land him.