Zulgad: Vikings’ success might be difficult to understand but win total isn’t a fluke

From @jzulgad: The Vikings’ success might be an anomaly, but that doesn’t make it a fluke

The most basic statistics say the Vikings shouldn’t be this good. The advanced stats provide even more evidence that this success isn’t sustainable. The majority of national experts have declared that what we are seeing is more fluke than fact.

And, yet, 13 weeks into the season the Vikings are sitting at 10-2 with their past nine victories coming by one score. Their 10 wins are second-most in the NFL to Philadelphia’s 11 and the Vikings have a chance to lock up the NFC North on Sunday in Detroit.

It is remarkable that a team that is second-to-last in the league in total defense, that is outside the Top 10 in scoring offense and isn’t a favorite of Football Outsiders DVOA ratings can continue to find a way to win games.

But that’s the thing about these Vikings.

Their victories often might be ugly — and their losses brutal (Philadelphia and Dallas) — but at some point you can’t just dismiss 10 wins as all being lucky. Not when Kirk Cousins and his teammates continue to make key plays when it counts the most.

One of the narratives surrounding the 2021 Vikings was that if they had been more successful in one-score games they could have been a good team. Instead, Mike Zimmer’s team went 6-8 in one-score games and 3-4 in games decided by a field goal or less and Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman were fired after an 8-9 finish. The 14 one-score games was an NFL record.

The attempt to put a positive spin on last season was nonsense. Those one-score games weren’t magically lost through bad luck, they were lost through lack of execution and getting key plays at key moments.

One of those instances came against the Buffalo Bills. Cornerback Patrick Peterson knew from his film study that Josh Allen was about to throw an in-breaking route to Gabe Davis on the game-ending interception.

That’s why trying to dismiss the Vikings’ current success also is nonsense. You don’t win nine games by one score through pure luck. One or two wins that way? Maybe, luck played a big role. But nine? C’mon.

That’s selling what first-year coach Kevin O’Connell has been able to do with a roster that isn’t that much different from a year ago. What is different is the belief this team, led by O’Connell, seems to have in itself and the attention to detail that was often missing last season.

Kirk Cousins’ biggest defenders spent his first four years in Minnesota pointing at his impressive statistics as evidence that while his team might have been underachieving, Cousins was playing well.

Cousins’ statistics are down across the board this season, but he’s also proving he can come through in the clutch. Cousins has led six fourth-quarter, game-winning drives in 2022 after having only four fourth-quarter or overtime game-winning drives to his credit in his first three seasons as a Viking.

O’Connell was hired to get the most out of Cousins and that didn’t mean better stats production. That means victories and he’s done exactly that. The Vikings’ 27-22 victory over the Jets last Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium showed the difference in Cousins’ play.

His first five passes fell incomplete, he struggled with accuracy and finished a less-than-impressive 21-of-35 for 173 yards. But when the Vikings needed him most, Cousins completed a 10-yard touchdown pass to Justin Jefferson in the fourth quarter to give the Vikings essential points. There was nothing lucky about that seven-play, 75-yard drive.

None of this is to say the Vikings are going to end their Super Bowl drought this season. There are areas that will need to be far better in the playoffs, starting with the defense. This also isn’t a formula you probably want to ride into next season.

But dismissing these Vikings as pretenders or frauds is selling them short. They have found a way to get to double-digit victories for the first time since 2019 and are almost certain to win the division for the first time since 2017.

That makes O’Connell and Co., worthy of praise, not scorn.

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