WWE Royal Rumble 2024: Breaking down the official entrants and their chances of winning

Who has the best chances to win the Men’s and Women’s Royal Rumble matches in St. Petersburg?

Year after year, the Royal Rumble remains one of the most highly anticipated events on the wrestling calendar.

But despite its usual buzz and attention, the match itself hasn’t always delivered. When I say that, I’m not just pointing to the execution of the match (2014 and 2015 being prime examples), but for the purposes of this piece, I’m also looking at the lack of quality storytelling leading up to it.

Heading into the 2024 edition of the match, however, I believe WWE has actually done a good job of creating a lot of intriguing options and stories for both the men’s and women’s matches. So much so that you could make the case for anyone that has officially declared for the match as of this writing to win.

Who will earn a championship match at WrestleMania? Let’s break down the official participants’ chances:

Cody Rhodes

If we’re going to have this discussion, we must start with the winner of last year’s men’s Rumble, Cody Rhodes, who has a story he really needs to finish. 

An easy path to completing said story would be to have Rhodes win the Rumble, challenge Undisputed Universal Champion Roman Reigns at WrestleMania, and defeat him to win back the title that was taken away from his father decades ago.

Image credit: WWE.com

Because of that, I’d say Rhodes’ chances of repeating as the last person standing — a feat only Hulk Hogan (1990-91), Shawn Michaels (1995-96), and Steve Austin (1997-98) have accomplished before him — are pretty high.

With that said, it is not necessarily required for Rhodes to win the Rumble to get a shot at Reigns, as February’s Elimination Chamber could also present opportunity if WWE chooses to go that route.

Also, you’ve got the elephant — or should I say rock — in the room known as Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, who could easily usurp Rhodes for that main event position against Reigns at WrestleMania. 

But until that comes to fruition, Rhodes would be a safe pick.

CM Punk

Outside of Rhodes, the person most people will tap as their winner of the 2024 men’s Royal Rumble is CM Punk.

Image credit: WWE.com

Punk is back after nearly a decade of being gone, and a quick and easy way to put him on the forefront of WWE programming heading into WrestleMania is by having him win the Rumble. As of right now, it remains one of the few milestones Punk has yet to reach in his illustrious — and controversial — career.

What also makes Punk a logical choice to win is the fact that Rhodes already won it last year. Although WWE has had three people win back-to-back Rumbles in the past, it also hasn’t happened since 1998. To me, that could clear the way for Punk to take home the win this year.

Would Punk’s opponent be WWE World Heavyweight Champion Seth Rollins? It sure seems like that will be the case, but with Rollins’ recent knee injury, that could change.

Shinsuke Nakamura

Despite being in some high-profile feuds as of late, Shinsuke Nakamura has come out on the short end at pretty much every turn. For me, that rules the 2018 Rumble winner out as the potential last person standing in 2024.

Image credit: WWE.com

However, I can foresee a scenario where he finally gets one over on Rhodes by eliminating the American Nightmare from the Rumble. It won’t make up for all of the losses Nakamura has taken up to this point, but it would serve as an easy way for the former Intercontinental Champion to regain at least some of his heat.

Bobby Lashley

I don’t think picking Bobby Lashley to win the Royal Rumble in any other year would be a bad choice. But there are exceptions to most rules, and I feel like 2024 is one of them.

Lashley is certainly worthy of being in the main event picture on Smackdown and maybe he will re-enter that stratosphere in due time, but he is currently embroiled in a faction war with Karrion Kross and the Authors of Pain, who are now collectively known as The Final Testament.

At the moment, Lashley and the Street Profits feel like they are being used as a vehicle to get the new group over, which would obviously require Lashley to take a little bit of a step back. If the plan for the time being is for Lashley and the Street Profits to get The Last Testament over, I don’t see how Lashley wins the Rumble.

Drew McIntyre

Is it me or is Drew McIntyre doing tremendous work as a heel? Unfortunately, the timing isn’t quite as tremendous.

In any other year, I think McIntyre would be a lock to win. However, with so many stars and unfinished stories at the top of the card, I don’t feel like 2024 will be the year for McIntyre to win his second Rumble match.

With that said, I think he will have a quality performance before ultimately being eliminated from the match.

Gunther

Before CM Punk arrived, I firmly believed Gunther was going to defeat Rollins at WrestleMania and become the new World Heavyweight Champion. Granted, he’d probably lose the Intercontinental title first, but you could not tell me otherwise.

Apr 2, 2023; Inglewood, CA, USA; Gunther during Wrestlemania Night 2 at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

But Punk did, in fact, return to WWE and is now seemingly on a collision course with Rollins. So what now for Gunther? Well, a strong showing in the Rumble would be cool.

A win? Unfortunately, I don’t see it in the cards. However, I do believe Gunther will be in the world title picture at some point in 2024. 

Bayley

Let’s flip over to the women’s side where fewer people have declared, but it is still a strong group of contenders.

Bayley is at the top of a lot of people’s lists, and for good reason. Bayley has never won a Royal Rumble and looks to be on her way out of Damage CTRL. 

What better way for her to gain revenge on her possibly soon-to-be former friends than by challenging IYO SKY for the WWE Women’s Championship at WrestleMania?

I’m not a betting man, but if I were, I’d consider putting some credits on Bayley to win.

Nia Jax

Another person that has never won the Royal Rumble is Nia Jax, who has enjoyed what has been a pretty successful run since returning to WWE last year.

Jax’s run includes a pin fall victory over 2019 women’s Royal Rumble winner Becky Lynch, which is not something a lot of people on the roster can say.

However, I believe that victory will leave the door open for Lynch to gain a measure of revenge and eliminate Jax from the match.

Becky Lynch

But how far does Lynch go after that? Pretty far, I believe.

Nothing has been confirmed, but it sure looks like Lynch is being primed for a match against WWE Women’s World Champion Rhea Ripley at WrestleMania. A logical way to get there would be to have Lynch win her second Rumble match.

But like Rhodes, winning the Rumble isn’t required to get Lynch and Ripley to that point. Plus, if my prediction of Lynch eliminating Jax comes true, I’d imagine Jax would not take that too kindly and literally knock Lynch out of the match.

Bianca Belair

Whenever Bianca Belair is involved, you can never rule her completely out.

WWE has pushed her to the moon pretty much since 2021 and she has delivered at every step of the way. In my eyes, she’s a made woman on the roster as a result. So I understand if there are some out there who will predict Belair will win her second Rumble match.

Apr 2, 2023; Inglewood, CA, USA; Bianca Belair during Wrestlemania Night 2 at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

With that said, I’m not sure how much sense it would make for Belair to win this year’s women’s Royal Rumble. I’m basing that solely off the stories WWE has been telling the last few months. It simply feels like WWE is moving in different directions.

That is not to say Belair will not be involved in any major storylines. Like I said, WWE seemingly has complete faith in her ability and will keep her figured in. But I just don’t think it’s her turn to win it all this year. 

Next year could be a completely different story.

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