NBA commissioner Adam Silver on July 12 spoke at the NBA 2K23 Summer League about the future of the league. During that conversation, Silver made waves when he said he would endorse lowering the age of entry to the NBA from 19 to 18 years old.
It’s (based on) larger conversations than just whether we go from 19 to 18, but I’m on record: When I balance all of these various considerations, I think that would be the right thing to do and I am hopeful that that’s a change we make in this next collective bargaining cycle, which will happen in the next couple years.
Silver lacks the power to institute the change unilaterally but could play a key role in instituting the rule change during the next Collective Bargaining Agreement with the NBA Players’ Association. The current rule was instituted in 2005 to eliminate the transition of high school players directly to the league.
Adam Silver says his personal view is that the age limit should drop from 19 to 18, and that he's "optimistic" that it could happen during the next collective bargaining cycle, which will happen over the next year.
— Tim Bontemps (@TimBontemps) July 13, 2022
This may make sense in the current landscape of how basketball has evolved. Intensive college recruiting services and the AAU game have identified talented players earlier than ever and many players know they’re destined for the league well before putting on a college uniform. The emergence of the ‘one-and-done’ has become so common it’s been embraced as a popular recruiting strategy amongst some of the top college programs.
In the past few years, players have begun to show their discontent with this current restriction and be seemingly forced to play college basketball. Jalen Green, the second overall selection in the 2021 draft, famously decided to take a paycheck for the NBA G League rather than commit to any college program. Now, with the emergence of NIL and endorsements that could potentially outweigh those on the NBA rookie scale, the league is having to reconsider its stance on high school players entering the draft.
This conversation makes an interesting point, though: Would lowering the age limit actually benefit the league or the players? There’s a strong argument that it would not.
As it stands, the NBA drafts players that it knows very little about when selecting college freshmen at the top of the draft. Teams have film on only one year of play against non-high school competition and much of that is tainted by the fact that players are adjusting to new schemes and new teammates at their schools. Despite a limited sample size, the process does allow the metaphorical cream to rise to the top.
The draft almost never goes in consensus with the rankings players held out of high school. Zion Williamson a few years ago was able to elevate over teammates RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish who’d been ranked ahead of him by services. Recently, Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith Jr. proved they were far more ready for the NBA game than Jaden Hardy or Emoni Bates.
Are teams ready to forfeit this stage of the learning process? They partially already have when examining draft picks such as Portland’s selection of Shaedon Sharp without playing a single college game. However, picks with even more uncertainty would become almost the norm if consensus five-star prospects were able to make that immediate leap.
Mystery remains: Fans hoping to finally get a good look at Shaedon Sharpe will have to wait after the Portland Trail Blazers rookie injured his shoulder in a brief NBA Summer League debut. https://t.co/3a5R8Lxaku
— USA TODAY Sports (@usatodaysports) July 9, 2022
More questions evolve when examining the caliber of players that teams receive in the draft. It isn’t controversial to say that most 19-year-olds are not ready for the NBA, and an 18-year-old coming out of high school would be even less ready. As much as lowering the age would lower the floor of prospects, it limits the ceiling of immediate impact in the league.
Gone are the days of a team like the San Antonio Spurs receiving a talent like Tim Duncan and becoming an immediate title contender behind their star rookie. Currently, most NBA clubs need to wait 3-4 years before their draft picks have any chance at contributing to winning basketball as a top player. When Ja Morant took his squad to a top seed in the Western Conference this past season, it was his third in the NBA.
Will fans become disillusioned with the draft if they know the impact curve looks more like the MLB draft than the NFL draft? Are teams willing to embrace the immaturity and inexperience of an 18-year-old on their roster? From a competitive balance standpoint, this would also seem to harm the draft product.
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Finally, the NBA would be forfeiting a great marketing opportunity should they move to a lower age model. College basketball currently serves as free marketing and star development for their league. Everyone around the country roots for the teams and regions they went to university for and college basketball helps to connect young players with fans early.
Williamson was a star when he arrived in New Orleans because of his emergence at Duke. Trae Young had a cult following when he arrived in Atlanta due to his fantastic play at a traditional football power in Oklahoma. Around the country, many fans follow alumni of their university and whoever they play for rather than the local team.
Simply put, college basketball and regional ties help to enhance the NBA buy-in and product.
There are certainly players who are talented enough to enter the league and make an impact at a very young age. However, more often than not, a rule like that is going to serve to benefit a very, very small minority of sure-fire basketball recruits and prospects.
Maybe it’s possible a compromise would be best where players can either leave immediately or play two seasons of college basketball. Regardless, forfeiting the college basketball experience feels like a loss for the draft and its product.
This post originally appeared on Rookie Wire! Follow us on Facebook!
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