This year’s edition of the Red River Showdown is unique in more ways than one. Perhaps the least impactful of which is this: one side’s quarterback will be playing in his fifth installment of the rivalry, while the other is playing in his first.
Despite a handful of attempts, Texas’ Sam Ehlinger is just 1-3 in this matchup, losing once each to Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts. That being said, he’s getting some relief this year in the form of a redshirt freshman lining up on the other side.
In stark contrast, Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler is brand new on the scene. Saturday will be just the fourth full college football game of his career, but you wouldn’t be able to tell based on his play. Besides a few extra interceptions and sacks (both of which are fair given the relentless pressure he’s faced), Rattler’s play has picked up right where Hurts left off.
But in the wake of this game and everything that comes with it, much is being made of the notable experience discrepancy. There’s surely something to be said about your first time playing in the Cotton Bowl, but does it really make a difference in the end?
First, our control group. We want to be sure we’re not simply measuring the difference between rookie and veteran quarterbacks, so I’ve charted the season stats of every OU-Texas starting quarterback since 2000 (from both sides). Players that made their first OU-Texas start in that season are in orange, while the returning starters are in blue.
In essence, this chart is giving us a baseline expectation for the difference between experienced quarterbacks and inexperienced ones. As you can see, it’s fairly significant. Experienced quarterbacks are a lot better, but we already knew that.
And just to give you an idea how incredible Oklahoma’s quarterback play has been the past four seasons: see that cluster way off to the right? Those are the past four seasons by Oklahoma’s starting quarterbacks.
Now onto the experimental group: same players, same seasons, but this time we’re only looking at how they performed in OU-Texas matchups.
As you can see, the relationship is still there, but it’s far less pronounced. It actually seems as if both groups have nearly identical floors, while the returning starters have a higher ceiling. In comparison to the full season, experience actually means very little in this arena.
What does this mean for Saturday? As we’ve come to see more and more each year, this game tends to not make a whole lot of sense.
Place a bit of stock in Ehilnger’s experience, sure, but don’t discount Rattler solely because he lacks it. And given how he’s played so far this season, it might be worth throwing the “experience” notion completely out the window.
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