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The UConn Huskies (33-5) and Iowa Hawkeyes (33-4) meet Friday at the Final Four in the Women’s NCAA Tournament. Tip-off from Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland is slated for approximately 9 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UConn vs. Iowa odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
The 3rd-seeded Huskies will face the No. 1 seed Hawkeyes with a spot in the national championship hanging in the balance.
UConn beat 14th-seeded Jackson State 86-64 in the 1st round but came nowhere near covering as a 35.5-point favorites with the Over (135.5) connecting. Star G Paige Bueckers went for 28 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists. In the 2nd round, UConn eased by No. 6 seed Syracuse 72-64, but the Orange easily covered as 19.5-point underdogs and the Under (144.5) cashed.
In the Sweet 16, UConn grinded out a low-scoring 53-45 win vs. No. 7 seed Duke, but again, the Huskies failed to cover. This time as 8.5-point favorites, and the Under (126.5) was never in doubt.
The Huskies followed by topping top-seeded USC and freshman phenom F Juju Watkins 80-73 in the Elite 8. UConn covered as a 3.5-point favorite and the Over (135.5) comfortably cashed. Bueckers went for 28 points and 10 boards in that victory. She is averaging 28.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 5.0 APG with 3.3 SPG and 1.5 BPG in 4 NCAA Tournament outings.
As for Iowa, the Hawkeyes topped 16th-seeded Holy Cross in the opening round 91-65, but they just missed cashing as 38.5-point favorites and the Under (157.5) came through.
In G Caitlin Clark‘s final home game in Iowa City, No. 8 seed West Virginia gave the scoring champ and the Hawkeyes all they could handle. In a contest that was tied with 2:15 to go, Iowa pulled away for a 64-54 victory and didn’t cover as 14.5-point favorites with the Under (163.5) hitting.
After moving on to Albany for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, Iowa put together a complete game against 5th-seeded Colorado, rolling to an 89-68 win as a 7.5-point favorite as the Under (157.5) won by a hook.
In the highly anticipated 2023 national title rematch, Iowa eliminated 3rd-seeded LSU with a 94-87 thriller in the Elite 8. Clark dropped 41 points with 12 assists, 7 rebounds, 2 steals and a blocked shot in 40 minutes, while knocking down 9 3-pointers as Iowa covered as a slight 1.5-point favorite. The Over (168.5) was never in question.
UConn vs. Iowa odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook’s; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): UConn +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Iowa -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Against the spread: UConn +2.5 (-105) | Iowa -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 162.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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UConn vs. Iowa and predictions
Prediction
Iowa 78, UConn 74
Moneyline
Iowa (-155) is a solid play as a moderate moneyline favorite, if you just want to choose a winner without fiddling around the points.
Clark and the Hawkeyes are on a collision course with unbeaten South Carolina, and the TV ratings will likely be through the roof. Clark and the Hawkeyes will do their part to give the people what they want.
In this case, I’m willing to lay the points with the spread below and AVOID a moneyline wager.
Against the spread
IOWA -2.5 (-115) is a good play laying the small amount of points. Clark won’t be able to do it all herself, and she’ll need G Kate Martin, G Sydney Affolter or someone else to step up and give the Hawkeyes solid secondary or tertiary scoring.
UConn has made a tremendous run to the Final Four, and this is a team with a bright future, as usual. But the time is now for Clark and the Hawkeyes, and they should get it done together.
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Over/Under
UNDER 162.5 (-110) might be the best play on the board.
The Over-Under has split in 4 NCAA Tournament games for UConn, while the Under is 3-1 for Iowa in this tourney.
The Hawkeyes went off in the first quarter against LSU, and Clark was unconscious from behind the 3-point line all night. You can expect UConn will apply a lot more pressure along the perimeter, trying to make life more difficult for Clark and company than LSU did behind the arc.
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