The best offenses and the best quarterbacks in the NFL know how to pass the ball downfield. If Sam Darnold and the Jets want to take the next step toward being competitive in the league, they’ll need to learn how to rip off big plays and put up points fast.
Darnold made a lot of strides in his sophomore season, but he also understands one of his biggest weaknesses is his deep-ball accuracy. He told reporters this week that’s the area he plans on improving as he enters his third season in the league and second with Adam Gase as his coach.
“I feel like I left a couple opportunities out there on the field last year,” Darnold said. “I’m looking to hit those throws this year.”
He’s not wrong. Darnold ranked near the bottom of the league this past season on passes that traveled at least 20 air yards. He completed 42.42 percent of his passes of at least 21 air yards, according to Deep Ball Project, which ranked 26th in the league. His average intended air yards per pass ranked 15th in the league, but his 5.6 average completed air yards ranked 23rd, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Darnold also finished the 2019 season with the third-shortest air yard distance (46.2).
Broken down even further, Darnold performed better on some deep ball passes than others. He finished seventh in deep-ball accuracy on passes that traveled between 21-25 air yards and his accuracy was suspect on passes that traveled further than 25 air yards.
Darnold has the potential to be a deep-ball solid passer but needs some help. He had that in Robby Anderson his first two seasons, but now Anderson will be catching passes in Carolina. Joe Douglas actually replaced Anderson with two receivers, though, who are great at the long-ball: Breshad Perriman and second-round draft pick Denzel Mims.
Perriman ranked fifth in the NFL this past season with yards per catch (17.9) and tied for third in average air yards per target (16.1). Mims finished his senior season at Baylor with 28 receptions of at least 15 yards and 13 receptions of at least 25 yards – good for 19th and 22nd in the country, respectively. Both have small sample sizes – Perriman only caught 36 receptions in 2010 and Mims is a rookie – but they’ll give Darnold plenty of opportunities to connect on the deep-ball if Gase opens up the playbook. It’ll be on Darnold, though, to complete the passes and elevate his game.
The rebuilt offensive line should help Darnold complete his passes as well. Darnold was sacked 33 times in 2019 and tied for the third-shortest time in the pocket, the 15th-most blitzes and the fifth-most hurries. Douglas promised Darnold’s parents he would protect their son, and he added several key linemen this offseason to upgrade the offensive line between first-round pick Mekhi Becton, George Fant and Greg Van Roten. Darnold should be able to improve his deep-ball accuracy with better blocking and more time to throw.
Darnold has all the tools and weapons now to take the next step as a passer in the NFL. If he makes the adjustments this offseason, it’ll be on Gase and the rest of the offense around Darnold to make him a better quarterback.