The Big Ten basketball scene in 2020 is a very strange place not just because Rutgers and Penn State are likely to make the NCAA Tournament, or because Illinois could win the league, or because Michigan and Ohio State are buried near the bottom of the league standings, or because of all the severe home-and-road splits.
Something else speaks to the craziness and confusion of Big Ten hoops this season in a way the home-road records don’t quite express. Having a good home record and a bad road record isn’t that mind-blowing, especially if the results are relatively close. Playing at home, one would generally think, is worth a few points — not a ton, but a few. It certainly is worth a few points on betting lines. The standard general principle for betting lines in football is that home field is worth a field goal relative to a neutral field. So, a team favored by three points at home in football against its opponent would often (not always) be a pick ’em on a neutral field and a three-point underdog to that same opponent on the road.
What we are seeing in a number of Big Ten games — with Wisconsin being part of this pattern — is that teams collapse on the road. They aren’t losing by five points. They are getting obliterated. These same teams then thrive at home… and then get crushed on the road again.
Wisconsin lost by 19 at Purdue, then lost a close game at Iowa, then beat Michigan State without Brad Davison and Kobe King… and then lost by 18 to Minnesota with Davison back in the lineup. These are severe shifts in quality of play, not slight ones.
The Badgers are part of this pattern, but they aren’t the most volatile team in the Big Ten. That is probably Purdue:
Purdue might be the weirdest CBB team in the country.
Almost beat Florida St.
Lost to Nebraska by 14.Crushed Michigan St.
Barely escaped NWestern.
10 losses B4 the start of February.
Lost 2X by a total of 43 to Illinois.
Wins of 19+ points vs VA, Wisconsin, now up 20 on Iowa.— Matt Zemek (@MattZemek) February 6, 2020
The Boilermakers illustrate that ups and downs in 2020 Big Ten basketball aren’t just rooted in home wins and road losses; the Boilermakers either win blowouts or they get blown out, with very little in between.
The Big Ten has a lot of decent teams, but no great teams. It has a lot of teams which work really well when everything is clicking, but no team which functions well when one or two pieces of the machinery aren’t performing. Everything has to go right for these 12 NCAA Tournament hopefuls to thrive. There aren’t the super-duperstar players who can carry a flawed team on their back when everything else is collapsing.
Wisconsin is part of a larger pattern in the Big Ten this season.