We have noted that this next four-game sequence is very important for the Wisconsin Badgers. Within these four games, however, Wisconsin faces the more immediate task of making sure it at least gets a split of upcoming road games at Purdue on Friday and then Iowa on Monday.
I talk to Badger fans on Twitter and Facebook (mostly Twitter). When discussing the next four games — at Purdue, at Iowa, home versus Michigan State, at Minnesota — the general response I have received is that a 2-2 split of the four games would be fine. Not great or spectacular, but fine. Phrased differently, a 2-2 split of the next four games would solidify Wisconsin’s place in the NCAA Tournament, whereas a 1-3 mark could knock down the team’s seeding position and create a little more uncertainty about the team heading into the middle of February, with a whole month still left before the Big Ten Tournament. A 2-2 record is certainly not Wisconsin’s goal for these four games — 3-1 is the goal, with 4-0 being a wonderful thing to shoot for — but 2-2 would be a lot better than 1-3. A 2-2 record in these four games would feel like survival, enduring the worst of the Big Ten slate and still standing at the end of it.
I have already given away part of the game in this respect. I have already given you a sense of why this Friday game against Purdue matters a lot. However, I haven’t told the whole story just yet.
Here is the remainder of the story, filling in the added details about why this game matters a lot:
When any team in any sport needs to do well in a four-game sequence or a similarly compressed number of games (in pro sports, a best-of-seven series, for example), getting the first game in that sequence buys time for the rest of the sequence. A classic example of this was the Golden State Warriors winning Game 1 of the 2015 NBA Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Warriors were outplayed by the Cavs in that game, and on a larger level, Golden State was outplayed in each of the first three games by the Cavs in that series. The Warriors were consistently flummoxed by Cleveland and everything LeBron James was doing.
Yet: Because the Warriors scratched out that ugly Game 1 win, somehow, they were still in striking distance entering Game 4, instead of being down 3-0. When the Warriors, on their fourth try, finally made the adjustments they needed to make, and finally got the breakthrough performance from Andre Iguodala which made all the difference for them in the series, they were back on track. Winning Game 1 bought them time and smoothed the path for them in the series.
Wisconsin and every other college basketball team will not play a best-of-seven series, but in this four-game stretch, it remains important for Wisconsin to win the first game. If UW wins at Purdue on Friday, the pressure is off for Monday at Iowa. It doesn’t make that game less significant, but it does make that game less urgent. A loss at Purdue puts a lot more urgency into the Iowa game for many obvious reasons, the chief one being that Wisconsin would risk starting 0-2 in this four-game bundle, which dramatically elevates the chances of going 1-3 and leaves open the possibility of going 0-4, which would be a true disaster and put UW on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
A win at Purdue immediately calms the waters and lets the Badgers know that even if they lose to Iowa and Michigan State, they can still go 2-2 with a win at Minnesota. Wisconsin would get three bites at the apple in order to reach 2-2 if it gets this first game at Purdue. The Badgers will shape this four-game stretch in a context of opportunity.
If the Badgers lose, they will shape this four-game sequence in a context of burden and pressure.
That’s the fuller meaning of the Purdue game. Let’s see how it all plays out.