You read that story title correctly: “Wisconsin really could become (the) Big Ten’s second-highest-seeded team.”
I am not referring to being the No. 2 seed at the 2020 Big Ten Tournament in a week and a half.
I am referring to the 2020 NCAA Tournament.
Before I dive into the details, can we stop for a moment and note how utterly CRAZY this is?
Wisconsin, the team which started 5-5; Wisconsin, the team which was 6-6 through 12 Big Ten Conference games this season; Wisconsin, the team which lost one starter and then played Michigan State without two of its regular starters; Wisconsin, the team which couldn’t even tie its shoelaces against a not-very-good Minnesota squad on Feb. 5 — that Wisconsin could become the Big Ten team with the second-highest seeding in the conference at the NCAA Tournament.
Yes, it is not LIKELY that this will happen. Wisconsin has very little margin for error — one could argue, ZERO margin for error — if it wants to attain this distinction. However, it is ENTIRELY possible, and something happened earlier on Saturday which increased the chances that this turn of events could unfold.
Penn State has been a No. 4 seed in bracketology for weeks. The Nittany Lions, however, have cooled down in recent weeks, and Iowa stopped PSU on Saturday afternoon in Iowa City.
Chris Dobbertean, who does an excellent job at Blogging The Bracket, provided his 1-68 seed list earlier this past week, on Feb. 25, BEFORE Tuesday night’s Big Ten action. Maryland is, of course, going to get the highest NCAA Tournament seed of any Big Ten team. The Terrapins are likely to get a No. 2 seed. The rest of the conference is hard to seed at this point.
Dobbertean’s Tuesday afternoon seed list had Penn State at No. 4, Michigan State and Iowa at No. 5, Ohio State at No. 6, and Wisconsin at No. 7.
Given what we have seen from the Big Ten over the past few days — Tuesday night through Saturday afternoon, before the Michigan State-Maryland game Saturday evening — Wisconsin has a real chance to move up, while other Big Ten teams move down.
First of all, Penn State’s loss to Iowa likely drops the Nittany Lions to a No. 5 seed. Second, Iowa lost to Michigan State but beat PSU, probably remaining at a 5 seed. Ohio State beating Nebraska on Thursday is a placeholder win; it won’t change the Buckeyes’ seed. Wisconsin’s win at Michigan — a quality road win — should move the Badgers up to a No. 6 seed. It is hardly out of the question to consider Wisconsin a 5 seed given the Badgers’ wins over top-25 teams.
Right now, Michigan State — having beaten Iowa earlier in the week — is the non-Maryland team most likely to finish ahead of Wisconsin on the seed list. Yet, if the Spartans lose two or three games in the remainder of the season, that can change. Assuming Michigan State does lose twice, Wisconsin — with a very manageable end to its Big Ten regular-season schedule — could enter the Big Ten Tournament on an eight-game winning streak. Two more wins — creating a 10-game winning streak and putting UW in the championship game of the Big Ten Tournament — would make a No. 5 seed relatively safe. A Big Ten Tournament title would put the Badgers at No. 4, which is realistically this team’s ceiling.
I wouldn’t expect Wisconsin to be a 4 seed, but we could certainly see a scenario in which Penn State and Michigan State stall out, and Wisconsin joins one or both of those teams as a 5 seed while Ohio State and Iowa finish as No. 6 seeds.
Wisconsin would have only one Big Ten team seeded higher than the Badgers on Selection Sunday.
Again: It’s not likely, but it’s possible, and the fact that we are merely talking about this is enough of a commentary on how much the Badgers have reshaped their season over the past three weeks.