The main reason Wisconsin games are close — and are likely to remain that way in this 2020 basketball season — is that the Badgers can’t shoot threes well enough to gain a big working margin over their opponents. If you have seen one 6-of-23 or 7-of-21 shooting line from this team on 3-pointers, you have seen them all. It has been a very “Groundhog Day” season for the Badgers from downtown. UW simply won’t pull away from many Big Ten opponents if it can’t hit at least 38 to 40 percent of its threes. This is the number one cause of all these heart-attack games which come down to the very end.
However: This isn’t the only cause.
Against Maryland, the Badgers once again failed to get to the free throw line in big numbers. Wisconsin isn’t able to offset its bad shooting with a lot of free points at the charity stripe. This handcuffs the offense and narrows the Badgers’ margin for error. Yet, it has to be said that an inability to draw free throw attempts is, to a large degree, a reflection of talent more than effort.
If you’re not a skilled enough offensive player — with hesitation moves and fakes which create contact on shots (think of James Harden here, as annoying as he is to watch if you’re not rooting for the Houston Rockets) — you’re not going to draw many shooting fouls and go to the foul line. You can try to drive to the basket all you want, but if you lack the moves and the tricks, you won’t get the whistle. Wisconsin simply doesn’t have the players with high-end talent. It has to earn free throws with ball movement which leads to open cutters for layups and dunks, with the defense fouling to prevent the layup or dunk.
The lack of talent on this team is acknowledged. It is what it is. So, when a team doesn’t have a very high developmental ceiling in terms of talent, what is the fundamental path to victory and season-long success? On a conceptual level, the answer isn’t complicated: Maximize all the hustle stats and make as many effort plays as possible. The less talent a team has, the more it has to win with its effort and intelligence.
Against Maryland, Wisconsin had the intelligence. Yet again, the Badgers committed fewer than 10 turnovers (7). They have become very reliable in that regard. If Wisconsin continues to protect the ball on this scale, it should be an NCAA Tournament team. However, does UW want a double-bye at the Big Ten Tournament and a decent NCAA seed, as opposed to an 11 seed? If the Badgers want to give themselves a real shot at doing something in March, they have to make more effort plays in addition to keeping their turnover count low.
On Tuesday, Wisconsin grabbed just four offensive rebounds. Maryland had 10. The Badgers were plus-seven in turnovers (7 to Maryland’s 14), but that plus-seven margin in possessions was almost completely wiped out by the minus-six differential on the offensive glass.
This was a game in which Wisconsin’s flaws and merits basically cancelled each other out. Bad shooting was countered by good defense. Minimal free throw production was countered by good free throw defense against Maryland, allowing only 13 attempts (on which the Terps made only nine shots). The turnover margin was great, but the offensive rebounding margin was terrible.
This is what a low-margin-of-error team — and season — looks like: Wisconsin needs four or five of every six statistical measurements to work in its favor, but the team isn’t strong or talented enough to win four or five measurements. It will generally split those six measurements as illustrated above: three good outcomes and three bad ones.
Of the various statistical measurements one can examine, shooting percentages and free throw attempts are a reflection of talent. Will those statistical categories improve? We all hope so, but it would be foolish to expect UW to morph into a great 3-point-shooting team this season. That’s simply not what this team is.
What can Wisconsin do to increase its margins and get a much higher NCAA seed this season? Win the effort plays, such as offensive rebounds. To its credit, Wisconsin did win in blocked shots (2-0) and steals (5-2) against Maryland, but offensive boards offset that. If UW can win all the hustle-board categories, not just some, that is the most realistic way forward for this team.