When one uses the expression “playing to one’s seed” in a tournament, that turn of phrase refers to the result, matched against a strict numerical structure.
Very simply, a seed in a 68-team tournament carries with it an expectation — not a psychological or emotional expectation, but a projected result.
The basis for this discussion is NOT the seed each team has in the NCAA Tournament on the bracket sheet (seeds 1 through 16). The proper basis for this discussion is the 1-through-68 seed list.
There are four No. 1 seeds, so the “expected result” is not the same for all four No. 1 seeds. The team seeded first in a 68-team field is the team which is expected to win the national title; the team seeded number two on the 1-68 list is expected to make the championship game. The teams seeded third and fourth on the 68-team list are expected to make the Final Four.
The teams seeded 5-8 on the 68-team seed list are expected to make the Elite Eight. These are the four No. 2 seeds on the NCAA Tournament bracket sheet.
The teams seeded 9-16 on the 1-68 seed list are expected to make the Sweet 16. These are the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds on a bracket sheet.
You can go on and on and on down the list.
The No. 5-8 seeds are teams 17-32 on the 1-68 seed list. These 16 teams are expected to make the round of 32.
The teams seeded 9 through 16 on the bracket sheet are the teams seeded 33 or lower on the 1-68 seed list. These teams are not expected to win a game in the NCAA Tournament.
With this framework in mind, then, where do the Wisconsin Badgers stand in March Madness over time?
The Badgers’ two early-era NCAA Tournaments, in 1941 and 1947, were not seeded tournaments. The NCAA Tournament was not seeded until 1979, and Wisconsin didn’t return to the Big Dance until 1994.
Wisconsin has participated in 22 seeded NCAA Tournaments. How many times did UW play to its seed in the Big Show? How many times did Wisconsin play ABOVE its seed? How many times did the Badgers play BELOW their seed?
We have the answers here at Badgers Wire:
Wisconsin played ABOVE its seed nine times, BELOW its seed seven times, and directly to its seed six times.
Wisconsin met expectations six times but rose above them nine times and failed to meet expectations seven times.
On balance, the Badgers have played above their seed more than they failed to live up to their seed. That’s what it means to overachieve.