The Wisconsin Badgers (2-0) visit the Northwestern Wildcats (4-0) in Evanston, Ill. for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff, Saturday. Below, we analyze the Wisconsin-Northwestern college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Badgers are No. 12 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports and the Wildcats are No. 20.
Wisconsin at Northwestern: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 1 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Wisconsin -295 (bet $295 to win $100) | Northwestern +235 (bet $100 to win $235)
- Against the spread/ATS: Wisconsin -7.5 (-110) | Northwestern +7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 43.5 (O: -115 | U: -106)
Wisconsin at Northwestern: Three things to know
- Wisconsin went into the Big House last week and pasted Michigan 49-11. The Badgers outgained the Wolverines in total yards, 468-219, had 16 more first downs (26-10) and were plus-4 in turnovers.
- Northwestern handled its business against Purdue, winning 27-20 and covering as a four-point favorite last week. It was a prototypical Wildcats win with the Boilermakers being held to just two rushing yards as a team and only 24:58 of possession time.
- Wisconsin-Northwestern games are usually defensive slugfests where the total has gone Under in six of the past seven meetings by an average of 8.6 points per game.
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Wisconsin at Northwestern: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Northwestern 19, Wisconsin 17
Money line (ML)
Both sides have similar team profiles but Northwestern has a senior under center in QB Peyton Ramsey and Wisconsin has a redshirt freshman running its offense in QB Graham Mertz.
Wisconsin is averaging 47 points per game to start the season; however, it has thus far played inferior defenses compared to Northwestern’s opponents. Wisconsin doesn’t have the talent at running back it is accustomed to, names like Melvin Gordon, Jonathan Taylor and James White.
Northwestern has won three of its last six games against Wisconsin and is 3-1 in its last four home games in the series. This is the best Wildcats team since Pat Fitzgerald took over as head coach in 2006.
I “LEAN” NORTHWESTERN (+235) for a quarter-unit.
Against the spread (ATS)
If we lean toward a Wildcats upset, then we “LIKE” NORTHWESTERN +7.5 (-110) getting a touchdown and a hook. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS in its last six meetings in Northwestern.
The Badgers have beaten the crap out of the two bad teams/great matchups they’ve faced but the Wildcats are the best Big Ten team not named Ohio State or Wisconsin. Mertz looked great in Wisconsin’s first game but didn’t need to do much in the second game. I’ll take my chances with Ramsey.
HIT NORTHWESTERN +7.5 (-110) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
These teams have similar DNAs which line up nicely for an UNDER 43.5 (-106) wager.
Wisconsin’s defense has allowed only one touchdown in its two games this season and ranks top-5 across several different college football rating lists. The Badgers have returned the 17th-most production on defense, according to ESPN. Their defense is legitimate and Northwestern’s offense doesn’t pose much of a threat in this matchup.
The Wildcats’ strength is their defense and they’ll try to grind the game down with the run game. Northwestern has the 13th-highest run play percentage and 17th-highest net time of possession in the country; however, Wisconsin has the fifth-highest percentage of run plays called and the highest net time of possession in the nation.
GIMME UNDER 43.5 (-106) for 1.5 units.
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