The Wisconsin Badgers were sliding toward the NCAA Tournament bubble, but one win over the Michigan State Spartans removed that burden from the Badgers’ backs on Saturday. They aren’t a lock, but they are certainly moving a lot closer to lock status. Now that they have alleviated bubble pressure, they can focus more on “achievement-based” goals, and less on “avoid this disastrous scenario” goals. They don’t have to worry about failure; they can pursue a higher degree of success.
One of the more immediate goals, laid out earlier this season in our coverage at Badgers Wire, was for Wisconsin to get a top-four seed at the Big Ten Tournament. The double-bye gives Wisconsin a real chance to win the tournament and improve its NCAA seeding on Selection Sunday, but it also means Wisconsin won’t have to play as many games the week before the NCAAs. It will be good for this team to not have to play on Thursday at the Big Ten Tournament. This team doesn’t need that slog.
Where is Wisconsin in the pursuit of a top-four seed? After the Michigan State win, the outlook isn’t too bad. Yes, the Big Ten is a very cluttered conference. Wisconsin isn’t fighting one team to get to a top-four spot. The Badgers are fighting a large group. Yet, while that reality isn’t overly positive, this reality is very encouraging: Wisconsin is only one game out of a top-four seed.
The Badgers, at 6-5, are just one game back of Iowa, which is at 7-4 and holding down fourth place in a tie with Rutgers. Iowa would be the fourth seed if the season ended today due to a home win over Rutgers. Penn State is sixth in the Big Ten at 6-4, half a game ahead of Wisconsin, but the Badgers beat PSU head to head.
It is true that Wisconsin lost to Iowa and Rutgers, so head-to-head tiebreakers don’t cut in favor of the Badgers right now, but UW will host Rutgers later this season. Moreover, Wisconsin has already played Michigan State twice, Illinois and Maryland once. The Badgers have already played the teams in the top three of the Big Ten. The back end of their schedule is easier, not harder, than their January slate.
A top-four seed in the Big Ten Tournament won’t be easy to attain, but it has to be said that such a goal is a lot more attainable today than many of us (myself included) were willing to allow last week after the Brad Davison suspension before the Michigan State game.