Why Year 2 is crucial for Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian’s tenure

The first season is not a real indication of what a coach’s tenure will look like.

Many fans are curious whether or not Steve Sarkisian will be the head coach at Texas when they make the move to the SEC.

At the present time, it seems unlikely that Texas will leave the Big 12 for the SEC before the 2024 season. The buyout is too steep and the benefit is not worth it to go any earlier than that. So, the question can be reformulated as “Will Steve Sarkisian be the head coach in 2024?”

That question will be answered in large part by what happens this upcoming season. While Texas has a reputation for firing coaches every other year, this is inaccurate. Tom Herman was given four years before he was shown the door, and Charlie Strong would have gotten a fourth season if he had not had three straight losing seasons.

The first season is not a real indication of what a coach’s tenure will look like. Most of the players were not recruited by that coach, the team is learning new schemes, there are likely going to be some players who do not buy into the new coach, and the coach doesn’t truly know what the team is capable of.

As evidence of this, Pete Carroll went 6-6 in his first season at USC, and Nick Saban went 7-6 his first year at Alabama. Carroll went 11-2 his second season while Saban went 12-2. Both won national titles in Year 3.

I am not stating that Sarkisian needs to win 11 games in 2022. But if he does not win at least nine, his seat will be warm in Year 3. After 2021, he has much to atone for, and Texas is not a place that will give you overtime to figure it out.

Year 2 will be the season that ultimately tells us who Sarkisian is and where he can take Texas. Up to this point, he has not won nine regular-season games as a head coach. If that does not change this season, doom lies ahead.

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