Worried about Wisconsin making the 2020 NCAA Tournament? It is reasonable to be worried. If the Badgers lose to Michigan State and Minnesota, they would fall into a bubble position. They might still be slightly inside the cut line for inclusion in the tournament, but they would certainly be on thin ice.
Let’s say that worst-case scenario emerges. We don’t WANT it to happen, but we need to consider the possibility that it will. Is Wisconsin cooked in that situation? Not really.
Yes, we did say that this four-game sequence — at Purdue, at Iowa, home versus Michigan State, at Minnesota — was important. Wisconsin is 0-2 right now, and 0-4 would be really bad. A 1-3 mark wouldn’t be great, but it would be a lot better than 0-4.
The importance of this four-game sequence was — and is — precisely connected to the ability to remove any and all doubt about Wisconsin’s NCAA Tournament status. If UW wins its next two games to move to 2-2 in this four-game cluster, the Badgers would move well above the bubble and be fairly safely in the field. UW wouldn’t necessarily be a lock, with over a month left until Selection Sunday, but wins over Michigan State and Minnesota would mean that the Badgers would have to completely implode down the stretch to miss the Big Dance. Their odds of missing the tournament would be at one or two percent.
Let’s say, though, that Wisconsin keeps losing and goes 0-4. Bubble time, yes… but likely to miss the Dance? The long-term outlook is better than you might realize today (Jan. 29).
Get this: If the current four-game grind (Purdue, Iowa, MSU, Minnesota) is rough, given that it involves three road games plus a home game against the best team in the Big Ten, the remaining eight games before the Big Ten Tournament are very manageable.
In the remaining eight games after the Feb. 5 visit to Minnesota, Wisconsin plays five of them at home, none against Michigan State. Wisconsin plays three games on the road. One is at Nebraska, one of the two easier road trips in the 2020 Big Ten. One is at Michigan, a team which began this week 2-6 in Big Ten play.
One can make the argument that after the Feb. 5 trip to Minnesota, Wisconsin’s toughest remaining game is a road trip to Indiana on March 7. It is either that game or the Feb. 23 home game against Rutgers. That is a very friendly schedule down the stretch. It is the biggest reason why, for all of this team’s struggles in the present moment, it is still likely to make the NCAA Tournament… even if it loses to Michigan State and Minnesota.