Why two Big Ten teams are on upset watch in Week 5

A pair of Big Ten teams are on upset watch heading into Week 5 of the 2024 college football season.

The non-conference schedule gave the college football world some big-time upsets, ranging from complete collapses (Florida State) to one-week shockers (Northern Illinois toppling Notre Dame). The Big Ten had its own upsets, including Illinois logging two wins against top 25 opponents (including their Big Ten opener at Nebraska).

Upsets are a part of game. That means a few of the favorites in this week’s Big Ten matchups could fall prey to the underdog.

Washington Huskies at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Friday, September 27th at 8:00 PM ET

Both teams boast top ten rushing offenses in the country, using Offensive Success Rate. Washington Huskies RB Jonah Coleman and Rutgers Scarlet Knights RB Kyle Monangai average over six yards per carry and have been paramount through the first months of games.

Both backs will be licking their chops with the opposing defense being sieves stopping the run. Neither starting QB will be asked to air it out early so long as a blowout doesn’t show up.

Huskies QB Will Rogers is a better passer than Rutgers QB Athan Kaliakmanis, but it’s the Antioch, IL native’s net positive rushing and composure in tough scenarios through three games is impossible to ignore.

Rutgers is only a two-point favorite as of Thursday night. Close matchup, but a Washington road win would be an upset.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions

Saturday, September 28th at 7:30 PM ET

Illini QB Luke Altmeyer has stepped up and played up to the challenges of Kansas and Nebraska. Altmeyer’s receiver duo of Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin account for 41 of 72 completions, which makes the game plan simple for the Penn State defense. Stop Altmeyer and get him into positions for turnovers (0 INT).

Illinois needs to succeed on the ground. The running attack averaged 4.3 yards per carry against the Cornhuskers, and only 2.3 against the Jayhawks. Anything less than what they got last week would be disastrous.

The best matchup will be the Illinois secondary against the Nittany Lions passing attack.